Math Problem Statement

High blood pressure has been identified as a risk factor for heart attacks and strokes. The proportion of U.S. adults with high blood pressure is 0.4 . A sample of 40 U.S. adults is chosen. Use the TI-84 Plus calculator as needed. Round the answers to at least four decimal places as needed. Find the probability that more than 42% of the people in this sample have high blood pressure.

Solution

We are dealing with a binomial distribution problem here because we are sampling a fixed number of individuals (40 U.S. adults), and each individual either has high blood pressure or not. However, when the sample size is large, as in this case, the normal approximation to the binomial distribution is often used.

Step 1: Define the parameters

  • The proportion (probability of success, pp) of U.S. adults with high blood pressure is given as p=0.4p = 0.4.
  • The sample size is n=40n = 40.
  • We are asked to find the probability that more than 42% of the sample has high blood pressure, meaning we are looking for P(p^>0.42)P(\hat{p} > 0.42), where p^\hat{p} is the sample proportion.

Step 2: Compute the mean and standard deviation of the sample proportion

For a binomial distribution, the mean μp^\mu_{\hat{p}} and standard deviation σp^\sigma_{\hat{p}} of the sample proportion p^\hat{p} are given by:

μp^=p=0.4\mu_{\hat{p}} = p = 0.4 σp^=p(1p)n=0.4(10.4)40=0.2440=0.0060.0775\sigma_{\hat{p}} = \sqrt{\frac{p(1 - p)}{n}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.4(1 - 0.4)}{40}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.24}{40}} = \sqrt{0.006} \approx 0.0775

Step 3: Convert the sample proportion to a z-score

We want to find the probability that p^>0.42\hat{p} > 0.42. To do this, we convert p^=0.42\hat{p} = 0.42 to a z-score using the formula:

z=p^μp^σp^z = \frac{\hat{p} - \mu_{\hat{p}}}{\sigma_{\hat{p}}}

Substitute the values:

z=0.420.40.07750.020.07750.2581z = \frac{0.42 - 0.4}{0.0775} \approx \frac{0.02}{0.0775} \approx 0.2581

Step 4: Use the z-table or

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Binomial Distribution
Normal Approximation
Z-scores
Probability

Formulas

Mean of sample proportion: μ_\hat{p} = p
Standard deviation of sample proportion: σ_\hat{p} = √(p(1-p)/n)
Z-score: z = (\hat{p} - μ_\hat{p}) / σ_\hat{p}

Theorems

Central Limit Theorem
Normal Approximation to Binomial Distribution

Suitable Grade Level

College-level Statistics