Math Problem Statement

To model some data, Pat ran an exponential regression and found the regression equation to be ŷ = 0.496 * 1.3^x. The scatterplot and residual plot are shown. Select the true statements from the options: A) The residual plot changes direction, so a quadratic model would fit the data better. B) The points in the scatterplot follow a line, so a linear model would fit the data better. C) The model is not a good fit because there is a pattern in the residual plot. D) The model is a good fit because the patterns in the plots are both curves.

Solution

Let's break down the problem:

The regression equation is y^=0.4961.3x\hat{y} = 0.496 \cdot 1.3^x, which represents an exponential regression model.

Analyzing the Scatterplot:

  • The scatterplot shows an increasing trend in the points, which matches the expected pattern of an exponential model.

Analyzing the Residual Plot:

  • In the residual plot, residuals (the differences between observed and predicted values) appear to follow a somewhat patterned curve instead of being randomly distributed around zero.

Now, let's review the options:

  • A. "The residual plot changes direction, so a quadratic model would fit the data better."

    • False: The residual plot shows a curve, which may suggest a better fit with a non-linear model, but it doesn't mean quadratic is necessarily better.
  • B. "The points in the scatterplot follow a line, so a linear model would fit the data better."

    • False: The scatterplot shows an exponential growth, not a straight line. A linear model would likely not fit well here.
  • C. "The model is not a good fit because there is a pattern in the residual plot."

    • True: The residual plot shows a clear pattern (a curve), which indicates that the exponential model might not be the best fit. Ideally, residuals should be randomly scattered around zero.
  • D. "The model is a good fit because the patterns in the plots are both curves."

    • False: Even though both plots show curves, the pattern in the residuals suggests that the model is not capturing all the trends in the data.

Correct answer: C


Would you like further details on any of these points?

Here are 5 related questions to expand on this topic:

  1. How can you identify if an exponential model is a good fit based on a residual plot?
  2. What does it mean when a residual plot shows a pattern?
  3. How would a quadratic model be more appropriate for some data sets?
  4. What are the key differences between linear and exponential regression models?
  5. How do we interpret the parameters of an exponential equation like y^=0.4961.3x\hat{y} = 0.496 \cdot 1.3^x?

Tip: A good residual plot should display no clear patterns, meaning the model has captured all the information in the data.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Exponential Regression
Residual Plot
Model Fitting

Formulas

Exponential Regression: ŷ = 0.496 * 1.3^x

Theorems

Model Fit Criteria: Residual plots should show no pattern if the model is a good fit.

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 10-12