Math Problem Statement
(Medicare). The annual expenditures for Medicare (in billions of dollars) by the US Government for selected years since 1980 are shown in Table 4. Let x represent the years since 1980. (Use 4 decimal places in all answers.) Year Billion $ 1980 37 1985 72 1990 111 1995 181 2000 197 2005 330 Table 4: Medicare Expenditures
A. Find the exponential regression model for the data. M(x) =
Incorrect: Your answer is incorrect.
B. What is the r2 value for this model? r2 =
Incorrect: Your answer is incorrect.
C. Extimate (to the nearest billion) the expenditures in 2008? The Medicare expenditures in 2008 were about $
Incorrect: Your answer is incorrect. billion.
Solution
Let's tackle this problem by going through the steps for exponential regression. We are given the following dataLet's tackle this problem by going through the steps for exponential regression. We are given the following
Year | Billion $ () |
---|---|
1980 | 37 |
1985 | 72 |
1990 | 111 |
1995 | 181 |
2000 | 197 |
2005 | 330 |
Step 1: Define Values
First, we need to assign as the number of years since 1980. So:
Thus, we get the following values:
Year | Billion $ () | |
---|---|---|
1980 | 37 | 0 |
1985 | 72 | 5 |
1990 | 111 | 10 |
1995 | 181 | 15 |
2000 | 197 | 20 |
2005 | 330 | 25 |
Step 2: Exponential Regression Model
The exponential model has the form:
To find and , we can use the data to perform an exponential regression. I'll calculate the best-fit model now.### A. Exponential Regression Model
The best-fit exponential regression model is:
B. Value
The value for this model is approximately:
This indicates a strong fit between the model and the data.
C. Estimation of Expenditures in 2008
To estimate the Medicare expenditures in 2008, first, calculate . Now, substitute into the model:
Let me calculate that for you.### C. Estimate for Expenditures in 2008
The estimated Medicare expenditures in 2008 are approximately $404 billion.
Would you like more details on any step? Here are some follow-up questions you might explore:
- How do we interpret the value in regression analysis?
- How can you calculate residuals to evaluate model accuracy?
- Can this model be applied to future years, and what assumptions are involved?
- What are the limitations of exponential models in economic data?
- How does Medicare expenditure growth compare to inflation or GDP growth?
Tip: In regression analysis, always verify the model fit using the value and residual analysis to ensure accurate predictions.
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Math Problem Analysis
Mathematical Concepts
Exponential Regression
Statistics
Regression Analysis
Formulas
Exponential regression model: M(x) = a * e^(bx)
r² (coefficient of determination): r² = 1 - (SS_res / SS_tot)
Theorems
Least Squares Method for Regression
Suitable Grade Level
Grades 11-12, College Level
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