Math Problem Statement

(Medicare). The annual expenditures for Medicare (in billions of dollars) by the US Government for selected years since 1980 are shown in Table 4. Let x represent the years since 1980. (Use 4 decimal places in all answers.) Year Billion $ 1980 37 1985 72 1990 111 1995 181 2000 197 2005 330 Table 4: Medicare Expenditures

A. Find the exponential regression model for the data. M(x) =

Incorrect: Your answer is incorrect.

B. What is the r2 value for this model? r2 =

Incorrect: Your answer is incorrect.

C. Extimate (to the nearest billion) the expenditures in 2008? The Medicare expenditures in 2008 were about $

Incorrect: Your answer is incorrect. billion.

Solution

Let's tackle this problem by going through the steps for exponential regression. We are given the following dataLet's tackle this problem by going through the steps for exponential regression. We are given the following

YearBillion $ (yy)
198037
198572
1990111
1995181
2000197
2005330

Step 1: Define xx Values

First, we need to assign xx as the number of years since 1980. So:

x=Year1980x = \text{Year} - 1980

Thus, we get the following xx values:

YearBillion $ (yy)xx
1980370
1985725
199011110
199518115
200019720
200533025

Step 2: Exponential Regression Model

The exponential model has the form:

M(x)=aebxM(x) = a \cdot e^{bx}

To find aa and bb, we can use the data to perform an exponential regression. I'll calculate the best-fit model now.### A. Exponential Regression Model

The best-fit exponential regression model is:

M(x)=50.6554e0.0742xM(x) = 50.6554 \cdot e^{0.0742x}

B. r2r^2 Value

The r2r^2 value for this model is approximately:

r2=0.9701r^2 = 0.9701

This indicates a strong fit between the model and the data.

C. Estimation of Expenditures in 2008

To estimate the Medicare expenditures in 2008, first, calculate x=20081980=28x = 2008 - 1980 = 28. Now, substitute x=28x = 28 into the model:

M(28)=50.6554e0.074228M(28) = 50.6554 \cdot e^{0.0742 \cdot 28}

Let me calculate that for you.### C. Estimate for Expenditures in 2008

The estimated Medicare expenditures in 2008 are approximately $404 billion.

Would you like more details on any step? Here are some follow-up questions you might explore:

  1. How do we interpret the r2r^2 value in regression analysis?
  2. How can you calculate residuals to evaluate model accuracy?
  3. Can this model be applied to future years, and what assumptions are involved?
  4. What are the limitations of exponential models in economic data?
  5. How does Medicare expenditure growth compare to inflation or GDP growth?

Tip: In regression analysis, always verify the model fit using the r2r^2 value and residual analysis to ensure accurate predictions.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Exponential Regression
Statistics
Regression Analysis

Formulas

Exponential regression model: M(x) = a * e^(bx)
r² (coefficient of determination): r² = 1 - (SS_res / SS_tot)

Theorems

Least Squares Method for Regression

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 11-12, College Level