Math Problem Statement

For this exercise, round all regression parameters to three decimal places.

Characteristics of traffic flow include density D, which is the number of cars per mile, and average speed s in miles per hour. Traffic system engineers have investigated several methods for relating density to average speed. One study† considered traffic flow in the north tube of the Lincoln Tunnel and fitted an exponential function to observed data. Those data are partially presented in the table below.

Speed sDensity D

32

34

25

53

20

74

17

88

13

102

(a) Make an approximate exponential model of D as a function of s. D(s) =   

(b) Express, using functional notation, the density of traffic flow when the average speed is 26 miles per hour.

D   

Calculate that density. (Round your answer to the nearest whole number.)   cars/mi

(c) If average speed increases by 1 mile per hour, what can be said about density? (Round your answer to one decimal places.)

The density D decreases by  %.

Solution

To solve the problem, let’s break it down into parts:


(a) Exponential Model

We are tasked to find an approximate exponential model for the relationship between density DD and speed ss. The general form of an exponential function is:

D(s)=AeBsD(s) = A \cdot e^{Bs}

Here AA and BB are parameters to be determined.

Using the data: [ s = [32, 25, 20, 17, 13] \quad \text{and} \quad D = [34, 53, 74, 88, 102] ]

Take the natural logarithm of both sides to linearize the relationship: ln(D)=ln(A)+Bs\ln(D) = \ln(A) + Bs

This converts the exponential relationship into a linear one, which can be fit using least squares regression. I will calculate this for you. numpy as np import pandas as pd from scipy.stats import linregress

Given data

speed = np.array([32, 25, 20, 17, 13]) # s density = np.array([34, 53, 74, 88, 102]) # D

Linearizing the data by taking the natural log of density

ln_density = np.log(density)

Perform linear regression on (speed, ln_density)

slope, intercept, r_value, p_value, std_err = linregress(speed, ln_density)

Extract parameters A and B for the exponential model

A = np.exp(intercept) # A = e^(intercept) B = slope

Round parameters to three decimal places

A_rounded = round(A, 3) B_rounded = round(B, 3)

A_rounded, B_roundedThe approximate exponential model is:

D(s)=233.206e0.059sD(s) = 233.206 \cdot e^{-0.059s}


(b) Density at Average Speed of 26 mph

Using the model D(s)=233.206e0.059sD(s) = 233.206 \cdot e^{-0.059s}, calculate the density when s=26s = 26:

D(26)=233.206e0.05926D(26) = 233.206 \cdot e^{-0.059 \cdot 26}

Let’s compute this. Calculate density for s = 26 speed_26 = 26 density_26 = A * np.exp(B * speed_26)

Round to nearest whole number

density_26_rounded = round(density_26) density_26_roundedThe density of traffic flow when the average speed is 26 miles per hour is:

D(26)=50cars/miD(26) = 50 \, \text{cars/mi}


(c) Effect of Increasing Speed by 1 mph

To determine the percentage decrease in density when the speed increases by 1 mph, calculate the relative change using the exponential model. The percentage decrease can be expressed as:

Percent decrease=(1D(s+1)D(s))100\text{Percent decrease} = \left( 1 - \frac{D(s+1)}{D(s)} \right) \cdot 100

Let’s compute the percentage decrease for a 1 mph increase. Calculate densities for s and s+1 density_s = A * np.exp(B * speed_26) # D(s) where s = 26 density_s_plus_1 = A * np.exp(B * (speed_26 + 1)) # D(s+1) where s = 27

Calculate percentage decrease

percent_decrease = (1 - density_s_plus_1 / density_s) * 100

Round to one decimal place

percent_decrease_rounded = round(percent_decrease, 1) percent_decrease_roundedThe density decreases by approximately:

5.8%for every 1 mph increase in average speed.5.8\% \, \text{for every 1 mph increase in average speed.}


Summary:

  1. Exponential Model: D(s)=233.206e0.059sD(s) = 233.206 \cdot e^{-0.059s}
  2. Density at 26 mph: D(26)=50cars/miD(26) = 50 \, \text{cars/mi}
  3. Effect of 1 mph Speed Increase: The density decreases by 5.8%5.8\%.

Would you like additional clarification or further calculations? Here are five related questions to explore:

  1. How does the model perform for other speeds (e.g., s=30s = 30)?
  2. What is the predicted density when s=10s = 10 mph?
  3. How does the rate of decrease in density change with higher speeds?
  4. Could a different functional form (e.g., polynomial) better fit the data?
  5. How does the goodness-of-fit (e.g., R2R^2) support the exponential model's accuracy?

Tip: Always validate models with more data points to ensure they generalize well.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Exponential Modeling
Linear Regression
Logarithmic Transformations

Formulas

Exponential function: D(s) = A * e^(B * s)
Logarithmic transformation: ln(D) = ln(A) + B * s
Percentage decrease: (1 - D(s+1)/D(s)) * 100

Theorems

Exponential growth/decay principles
Least squares regression method

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 11-12 or Introductory College Level