Math Problem Statement

During the COVID- 19 pandemic, Arizona became one of the virus hotspots. On June 1 , 2020 , there were 1170 new positive cases reported. The next day (June 2 , 2020 ), there were 1309 new positive cases reported. (Note that these are new cases, not total cases reported during the pandemic.) Data were collected from the Arizona Department of Health Services.

The data are shown in the following table. DO NOT FILL IN THE TABLE UNTIL THE QUESTION ASKS YOU TO.

Number of days since June 1 , t Number of new positive cases reported 0 1170 1 1309 2 Incorrect 3 Incorrect 4 Incorrect Vanessa thought that maybe an exponential model would be more appropriate for predicting the number of new cases per day with respect to the number of days elapsed since June 1 .

There were Incorrect times as many positive cases on June 2 as on June 1 .

Incorrect Try again. Read the prompt carefully. Make sure you understand we are going to use an exponential model in this question. By what number do we need to multiply the number of new cases on one day to determine the number of new cases on the following day? This is an increase of ] Incorrect ] = undefined. (unmatched parens). percent in the number of new positive cases from June 1 to June 2 .

If the number of new cases per day increases by the same factor for the next several days, complete the table above predicting the number of new cases each day. [This will create an exponential function.]

Define a function g that predicts the number of new cases in Arizona reported t days after June 1 if we assume an exponential model. Be sure to use proper function notation.

Incorrect syntax error: this is not an equation

Incorrect Try again. Make sure you are entering the function notation correctly and using the correct variables. Also, make sure you recognize that we are assuming an exponential function to model this data. By what number do we need to multiply the number of new cases on one day to determine the number of new cases on the following day? Which of the following expressions represent the factor we multiply the number of new cases on one day by to get the number of new cases on the next day? Select all that apply.

f ( 4 ) f ( 0 )

f ( 2 ) f ( 1 )

f ( 1 ) f ( 0 )

f ( 2 ) − f ( 1 ) 2 − 1

f ( 4 ) − f ( 0 ) 2 − 0

f ( 3 ) − f ( 1 ) 3 − 1

Solution

Let's break down the problem step by step.

Exponential Growth and Initial Conditions:

  1. Initial Cases on June 1: There were 1170 new positive cases reported.
  2. Cases on June 2: There were 1309 new positive cases reported.

Step 1: Finding the Growth Factor

The first task is to find the growth factor that multiplies the number of cases from one day to the next.

  • The growth factor can be found by dividing the number of cases on June 2 by the number of cases on June 1:

Growth Factor=Cases on June 2Cases on June 1=130911701.1197\text{Growth Factor} = \frac{\text{Cases on June 2}}{\text{Cases on June 1}} = \frac{1309}{1170} \approx 1.1197

This means that the number of new cases increased by a factor of approximately 1.1197 from June 1 to June 2.

Step 2: Determine the Exponential Function

An exponential function to model this situation would have the form:

g(t)=g(0)rtg(t) = g(0) \cdot r^t

where:

  • g(0)g(0) is the initial number of cases (on June 1, t=0t = 0).
  • rr is the growth factor we calculated above.
  • tt is the number of days since June 1.

Thus, the function g(t)g(t) can be written as:

g(t)=1170(1.1197)tg(t) = 1170 \cdot (1.1197)^t

Step 3: Predicting the Number of New Cases

Using the exponential function, we can now predict the number of new cases for the following days.

  • Day 0 (June 1): g(0)=1170g(0) = 1170
  • Day 1 (June 2): g(1)=1170(1.1197)1309g(1) = 1170 \cdot (1.1197) \approx 1309 (which matches the given data)
  • Day 2 (June 3): g(2)=1170(1.1197)21464g(2) = 1170 \cdot (1.1197)^2 \approx 1464
  • Day 3 (June 4): g(3)=1170(1.1197)31636g(3) = 1170 \cdot (1.1197)^3 \approx 1636
  • Day 4 (June 5): g(4)=1170(1.1197)41828g(4) = 1170 \cdot (1.1197)^4 \approx 1828

Now, let’s address the specific expressions that represent the factor we multiply by:

Step 4: Identifying the Correct Expression

The correct expression that represents the growth factor between any two consecutive days is:

f(t+1)f(t)\frac{f(t+1)}{f(t)}

For the days given in the problem, the correct expression is:

f(1)f(0)=13091170\frac{f(1)}{f(0)} = \frac{1309}{1170}

This is the correct representation of the growth factor.

Conclusion:

  • Growth Factor: 1.11971.1197
  • Exponential Function: g(t)=1170(1.1197)tg(t) = 1170 \cdot (1.1197)^t

If you want to predict the number of cases for future days, you can substitute the value of tt into the function g(t)g(t).

Follow-Up Questions:

  1. How would you calculate the number of cases on June 6, 2020?
  2. What happens to the number of cases if the growth factor remains constant for 10 days?
  3. How does an exponential model differ from a linear model in this context?
  4. What assumptions are we making by using an exponential model?
  5. Can the growth factor change over time? How would that affect the predictions?
  6. How would you adjust the model if new data showed a decrease in the growth factor?
  7. What is the percentage increase in cases from June 1 to June 2?
  8. How would this model change if the initial number of cases was 1500 instead of 1170?

Tip: Always check the validity of the growth factor over several days to ensure that the exponential model accurately reflects the actual data trend.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Exponential Growth
Multiplicative Factor

Formulas

Exponential function formula: g(t) = g(0) * r^t

Theorems

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Suitable Grade Level

Grades 10-12