Math Problem Statement

The amount of time passing between successive customer check-ins to a downtown Calgary hotel can be modeled by an exponential distribution with a mean of 10 minutes. The problem involves identifying the distribution's characteristics, calculating probabilities based on the exponential distribution, understanding the memoryless property, and finding specific probability thresholds.

Solution

Let's go through each part of this problem related to the exponential distribution with a mean of 10 minutes.

Part (a)

An exponential distribution with a mean of 10 minutes implies that:

  • The distribution is right-skewed (a characteristic of exponential distributions).
  • The mean μ=10\mu = 10 minutes.
  • The standard deviation σ=μ=10\sigma = \mu = 10 minutes, since, in an exponential distribution, the mean and standard deviation are equal.

So, the correct answer here is likely Option E: "The distribution is right-skewed with a mean of 10 minutes and a standard deviation of 10 minutes."

Part (b)

To compute the probabilities, we use the exponential probability density function (PDF) and cumulative distribution function (CDF):

Given:

  • Mean μ=10\mu = 10 minutes, so the rate λ=1μ=0.1\lambda = \frac{1}{\mu} = 0.1.

For an exponential distribution, the probability that TtT \leq t is given by: P(Tt)=1eλtP(T \leq t) = 1 - e^{-\lambda t}

(i) Probability that the time passing is less than 5 minutes:

P(T<5)=1e0.1×5P(T < 5) = 1 - e^{-0.1 \times 5}

(ii) Probability that the time passing is between 9.5 and 18 minutes:

P(9.5T18)=P(T18)P(T9.5)P(9.5 \leq T \leq 18) = P(T \leq 18) - P(T \leq 9.5) Calculate each term separately:

  • P(T18)=1e0.1×18P(T \leq 18) = 1 - e^{-0.1 \times 18}
  • P(T9.5)=1e0.1×9.5P(T \leq 9.5) = 1 - e^{-0.1 \times 9.5}

(iii) Probability that the time passing is more than 27 minutes:

P(T>27)=e0.1×27P(T > 27) = e^{-0.1 \times 27}

Part (c)

This is a conditional probability question. Given that 14 minutes have passed, we want the probability that at least another 10 minutes will pass. For exponential distributions, the memoryless property tells us: P(T>24T>14)=P(T>10)=e0.1×10P(T > 24 \mid T > 14) = P(T > 10) = e^{-0.1 \times 10}

Part (d)

To find the time tt such that 93% of the time the check-in interval is at most tt: P(Tt)=0.93P(T \leq t) = 0.93 Solving for tt: 1e0.1t=0.931 - e^{-0.1 t} = 0.93 e0.1t=0.07e^{-0.1 t} = 0.07 0.1t=ln(0.07)-0.1 t = \ln(0.07) t=ln(0.07)0.1t = -\frac{\ln(0.07)}{0.1}

I'll proceed with these calculations now.Here are the results for each part of the calculations:

  • (b)(i) Probability that the time passing is less than 5 minutes: 0.3935\approx 0.3935.

  • (b)(ii) Probability that the time passing is between 9.5 and 18 minutes: 0.2214\approx 0.2214.

  • (b)(iii) Probability that the time passing is more than 27 minutes: 0.0672\approx 0.0672.

  • (c) Probability that at least another 10 minutes will pass after 14 minutes have already passed: 0.3679\approx 0.3679.

  • (d) 93% of the time, the number of minutes passing between successive customer check-ins is at most approximately 26.59 minutes.

Would you like further explanations on any part, or details on how these values were derived?

Here are 5 related questions to deepen understanding:

  1. How would the results change if the mean time between check-ins were different?
  2. Why does the memoryless property apply to exponential distributions specifically?
  3. What is the impact of the rate parameter λ\lambda on the shape of the distribution?
  4. How do we interpret probabilities in the context of an exponential distribution?
  5. Could we use a different distribution if the check-in times followed a different pattern?

Tip: For exponential distributions, the mean and standard deviation are always equal, making it unique among distributions.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Exponential Distribution
Probability
Conditional Probability
Memoryless Property

Formulas

Exponential Probability Density Function (PDF): f(t) = λe^{-λt}
Exponential Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF): P(T ≤ t) = 1 - e^{-λt}
Mean of Exponential Distribution: μ = 1/λ
Standard Deviation of Exponential Distribution: σ = μ
Memoryless Property: P(T > t + s | T > s) = P(T > t)

Theorems

Memoryless Property of Exponential Distributions

Suitable Grade Level

Undergraduate Statistics