Math Problem Statement

A community with L members contains I(t) infected individuals at time t, and S(t) is the uninfected/susceptible individuals. Assuming L is a constant, we have S(t) = L − I(t). For a mild illness, such as the common cold, everyone continues to be active, and the epidemic spreads from those who are infected to those who are susceptible. Since there are I(t)S(t) possible contacts between these two groups, the rate of change of I(t) is proportional to I(t)S(t). The model can be stated as the following IVP: I′(t) = kI(L − I); I(0) = I0; 0 ≤ t ≤ 60 where t is in days. For this problem use as ”exact” solution the solution you obtain using h = 0.0125. Often, if we do not have an analytical solution, we can use a finer grid as a good estimate (as long as the method converges and approaches the true solution as the grid is refined). a) Implement Euler’s method with h = 0.2 to approximate the solution to the above IVP on [0, 60] using the parameters L = 25, 000, k = 0.00003, with the initial condition I0 = 250.

Solution

To solve the given IVP (Initial Value Problem) using Euler's method with a step size of h=0.2h = 0.2, we need to implement the method for the differential equation:

I(t)=kI(t)(LI(t))I'(t) = kI(t)(L - I(t))

Given the parameters:

  • L=25,000L = 25,000 (total population)
  • k=0.00003k = 0.00003 (infection rate constant)
  • Initial condition: I(0)=250I(0) = 250
  • Time interval: t[0,60]t \in [0, 60]
  • Step size: h=0.2h = 0.2

Euler's method approximates the solution by iterating with the following formula:

I(tn+1)=I(tn)+hI(tn)I(t_{n+1}) = I(t_n) + h \cdot I'(t_n)

Where tnt_n is the current time step, I(tn)I(t_n) is the current value of the infected population, and I(tn)=kI(tn)(LI(tn))I'(t_n) = kI(t_n)(L - I(t_n)) is the rate of change at that time.

Let’s break down the steps:

  1. Start with t0=0t_0 = 0 and I(0)=250I(0) = 250.
  2. Use Euler's method to compute I(tn)I(t_n) for each nn by iterating from tnt_n to tn+1=tn+ht_{n+1} = t_n + h until tn=60t_n = 60.
  3. Update I(t)I(t) using the formula:
    I(tn+1)=I(tn)+hkI(tn)(LI(tn))I(t_{n+1}) = I(t_n) + h \cdot k \cdot I(t_n) \cdot (L - I(t_n))
  4. Repeat until we reach t=60t = 60.

Python Implementation for Euler's Method

Here's how we can implement Euler's method in Python:

python
import numpy as np import matplotlib.pyplot as plt # Parameters L = 25000 # Total population k = 0.00003 # Infection rate constant I0 = 250 # Initial number of infected individuals h = 0.2 # Step size t_max = 60 # Maximum time (days) # Initialize arrays t_values = np.arange(0, t_max + h, h) # Time steps from 0 to 60 with step size h I_values = np.zeros(len(t_values)) # Array to store infected population values I_values[0] = I0 # Initial infected population # Euler's method to approximate the solution for n in range(1, len(t_values)): I_values[n] = I_values[n - 1] + h * k * I_values[n - 1] * (L - I_values[n - 1]) # Plot the results plt.plot(t_values, I_values, label="Euler's Approximation") plt.xlabel('Time (days)') plt.ylabel('Infected Individuals I(t)') plt.title("Euler's Method Approximation of Epidemic Spread") plt.grid(True) plt.legend() plt.show()

Explanation:

  • Time Steps: The time vector tvaluest_{\text{values}} is created using np.arange, starting from 00 to 6060 with a step size h=0.2h = 0.2.
  • Euler's Update: For each time step, the infected population I(t)I(t) is updated using Euler's formula.
  • Plot: The values of I(t)I(t) are then plotted against time.

Let me know if you'd like me to run this or if you have any questions about the implementation!

Ask a new question for Free

By Image

Drop file here or Click Here to upload

Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Differential Equations
Euler's Method
Population Modeling
Epidemiology

Formulas

I'(t) = kI(L - I)
Euler's method: I(t_{n+1}) = I(t_n) + h * I'(t_n)

Theorems

Euler's Method for Numerical Approximation

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 11-12