To estimate the level for the second period ($l_2$), we likely need to use an Exponential Smoothing method. The formula for exponential smoothing is typically:

$l_t = \alpha \cdot X_t + (1 - \alpha) \cdot l_{t-1}$

Where:

• $l_t$ is the smoothed level at time $t$,
• $X_t$ is the actual observation at time $t$,
• $\alpha$ is the smoothing constant (often given),
• $l_{t-1}$ is the smoothed level from the previous period.

In this case, we'd be looking for $l_2$, the level for period 2.

However, the data table you provided does not explicitly show the smoothing constant $\alpha$, but it shows actual sales volumes for each month. Could you confirm whether the smoothing constant is provided or if there is a specific method (e.g., exponential smoothing) you are supposed to use? This will help determine the smoothed value.

Additionally, do you have any preferences for calculating the level based on a known smoothing constant, or is it part of the problem to solve it? Let me know if you want further details or clarification!

Meanwhile, here are 5 questions that may expand on this problem:

1. What is the smoothing constant $\alpha$ value, if given in your problem?
2. Are you using single or double exponential smoothing?
3. Can the formula for calculating forecast error and squared error be derived from the data in the table?
4. Are there additional columns on the table with more detailed smoothing data?
5. Would you like to estimate forecast accuracy using Mean Absolute Error (MAE) or another method?

Tip: Ensure you understand the type of smoothing method you're using (e.g., single, double, or triple exponential smoothing), as each has a slightly different approach to forecasting.