Math Problem Statement

Consider the epidemic model with vaccination S˙ = µN − βS I N − (µ + φ) S ˙I = βS I N − (µ + γ) I V˙ = γI + φS − µV, where S, I and V are the susceptible, infected and vaccinated populations respectively. 9 (a) Define the parameters µ, φ and γ. (b) Show that this is a constant population model

Solution

(a) Defining the Parameters:

  • µ (Mu): This is the birth and death rate in the population. It represents the per capita rate at which individuals are born into the population and die from natural causes. It's assumed to be constant across all groups (susceptible, infected, and vaccinated).

  • φ (Phi): This is the vaccination rate. It represents the rate at which susceptible individuals (S) are vaccinated and move into the vaccinated class (V).

  • γ (Gamma): This is the recovery rate. It represents the rate at which infected individuals (I) recover and move into the vaccinated class (V).


(b) Proving that this is a Constant Population Model:

In a constant population model, the total population NN remains unchanged over time, meaning the sum of the susceptible (S), infected (I), and vaccinated (V) populations should remain constant.

The total population NN is given by: N=S+I+VN = S + I + V

Now, to show that the population is constant, we differentiate NN with respect to time: N˙=ddt(S+I+V)=S˙+I˙+V˙\dot{N} = \frac{d}{dt}(S + I + V) = \dot{S} + \dot{I} + \dot{V}

Substituting the given equations for S˙\dot{S}, I˙\dot{I}, and V˙\dot{V}:

S˙=μNβSIN(μ+ϕ)S\dot{S} = \mu N - \frac{\beta S I}{N} - (\mu + \phi) S I˙=βSIN(μ+γ)I\dot{I} = \frac{\beta S I}{N} - (\mu + \gamma) I V˙=γI+ϕSμV\dot{V} = \gamma I + \phi S - \mu V

Summing these, we get: N˙=(μNβSIN(μ+ϕ)S)+(βSIN(μ+γ)I)+(γI+ϕSμV)\dot{N} = (\mu N - \frac{\beta S I}{N} - (\mu + \phi) S) + \left(\frac{\beta S I}{N} - (\mu + \gamma) I\right) + (\gamma I + \phi S - \mu V)

Simplifying: N˙=μNμSμIμV\dot{N} = \mu N - \mu S - \mu I - \mu V

Since N=S+I+VN = S + I + V, this simplifies to: N˙=μNμN=0\dot{N} = \mu N - \mu N = 0

This shows that N˙=0\dot{N} = 0, meaning the total population NN remains constant over time.

Therefore, the model is a constant population model.


Would you like further details or have any questions?

Here are 5 related questions for deeper exploration:

  1. What is the basic reproduction number R0R_0 in this epidemic model?
  2. How does increasing the vaccination rate ϕ\phi affect the dynamics of the model?
  3. How would you modify this model to include a death rate due to the disease?
  4. Can this model predict herd immunity? If yes, how?
  5. How would a time-dependent vaccination rate affect the model's dynamics?

Tip: In a constant population model, the total rate of entry into the population (births) equals the total rate of exit (natural death, recovery, or vaccination).

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Epidemic Models
Differential Equations
Vaccination Dynamics

Formulas

S˙ = µN − βS I / N − (µ + φ) S
˙I = βS I / N − (µ + γ) I
V˙ = γI + φS − µV
N = S + I + V
˙N = ˙S + ˙I + ˙V

Theorems

Constant Population Model

Suitable Grade Level

Undergraduate - Advanced