Math Problem Statement

You would like to construct a 95% confidence interval to estimate the population mean annual income for people over age 40 in your state. You choose a random sample of such incomes and compute the mean of the sample as 40464 dollars with a standard deviation of 7855 dollars. (a) What is the best point estimate, based on the sample, to use for the population mean?

(b) For each of the following sampling scenarios, determine which distribution should be used to calculate the critical value for the confidence interval for the population mean.

(In the table, Z refers to a standard normal distribution, and t refers to a t distribution.)

Sampling scenario Z ,Could use either z or t, or it is Unclear The sample has size 85 , and it is from a non-normally distributed population.

The sample has size 95, and it is from a normally distributed population with an unknown standard deviation.

The sample has size 95, and it is from a non-normally distributed population with a known standard deviation of 7756.

Solution

Part (a): Best Point Estimate

The best point estimate for the population mean, based on the sample, is the sample mean.

Thus, the best point estimate is: Sample Mean=40464dollars.\text{Sample Mean} = 40464 \, \text{dollars.}


Part (b): Distribution to Use for Critical Value

To determine which distribution to use for the critical value of the confidence interval, consider the size of the sample, the distribution of the population, and whether the population standard deviation is known.

1. Sample size = 85, non-normally distributed population

  • Reasoning: Since the sample size is n=85n = 85, which is sufficiently large (n>30n > 30), the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) allows us to assume the sampling distribution of the mean is approximately normal even if the population is not. However, the population standard deviation is unknown, so we use the t-distribution.

  • Answer: tt.

2. Sample size = 95, normally distributed population with an unknown standard deviation

  • Reasoning: The population is normally distributed, but the population standard deviation is unknown. In this case, the correct distribution is the t-distribution.

  • Answer: tt.

3. Sample size = 95, non-normally distributed population with a known standard deviation of 7756

  • Reasoning: The sample size is n=95n = 95, which is large (n>30n > 30), and the population standard deviation is known. The CLT ensures the sampling distribution is approximately normal.

  • Answer: ZZ.


Final Answers

  1. Sample size = 85, non-normally distributed population: tt
  2. Sample size = 95, normally distributed population, unknown standard deviation: tt
  3. Sample size = 95, non-normally distributed population, known standard deviation: ZZ

Would you like further clarification or help computing the confidence interval?


Follow-up Questions:

  1. What formula is used to calculate a confidence interval using the tt-distribution?
  2. How does the sample size affect the choice of ZZ- vs. tt-distribution?
  3. Why does the Central Limit Theorem allow the use of normal approximations for large sample sizes?
  4. What are the degrees of freedom when using the tt-distribution?
  5. How do changes in confidence level affect the width of the confidence interval?

Tip:

The tt-distribution is used when the population standard deviation is unknown, and its shape depends on the sample size (degrees of freedom).

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Confidence intervals
Point estimation
Critical values
t-distribution
Standard normal distribution (Z-distribution)
Central Limit Theorem

Formulas

Confidence interval formula for population mean: CI = x̄ ± (critical value) * (s/√n)
Point estimate for population mean: Sample mean (x̄)

Theorems

Central Limit Theorem
Properties of t-distribution

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 11-12 or introductory college statistics