Math Problem Statement

If the rv X has a geometric distribution with P(success)=0.7236, then find P[(X>5)|(X>3)].

Solution

We are given that XX is a geometric random variable with P(success)=0.7236P(\text{success}) = 0.7236. We need to find P(X>5X>3)P(X > 5 \mid X > 3).

This is a conditional probability, which can be expressed as:

P(X>5X>3)=P(X>5X>3)P(X>3)P(X > 5 \mid X > 3) = \frac{P(X > 5 \cap X > 3)}{P(X > 3)}

Since X>5X>3X > 5 \cap X > 3 is equivalent to X>5X > 5, the formula simplifies to:

P(X>5X>3)=P(X>5)P(X>3)P(X > 5 \mid X > 3) = \frac{P(X > 5)}{P(X > 3)}

Step 1: Finding P(X>k)P(X > k) for geometric distribution

For a geometric random variable, the probability that XX is greater than kk is given by:

P(X>k)=(1p)kP(X > k) = (1 - p)^k

where p=0.7236p = 0.7236.

Step 2: Calculating P(X>5)P(X > 5) and P(X>3)P(X > 3)

Using p=0.7236p = 0.7236:

  • P(X>5)=(10.7236)5=0.27645P(X > 5) = (1 - 0.7236)^5 = 0.2764^5
  • P(X>3)=(10.7236)3=0.27643P(X > 3) = (1 - 0.7236)^3 = 0.2764^3

Let’s calculate these values.

The conditional probability P(X>5X>3)P(X > 5 \mid X > 3) is approximately 0.07640.0764.

Do you have any further questions, or would you like more details on any part of the solution?

Here are 5 related questions for deeper understanding:

  1. What is the definition of a geometric distribution and its key properties?
  2. How would the result change if P(success)P(\text{success}) were different?
  3. How can we calculate the mean and variance of a geometric distribution?
  4. What is the interpretation of conditional probability in this context?
  5. How would we approach the problem if we needed P(X5X>3)P(X \leq 5 \mid X > 3)?

Tip: In a geometric distribution, the memoryless property states that the probability of future events does not depend on past events, which simplifies conditional probabilities.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Geometric Distribution
Conditional Probability

Formulas

P(X > k) = (1 - p)^k
P(A | B) = P(A ∩ B) / P(B)

Theorems

Memoryless Property of Geometric Distribution

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 10-12