Math Problem Statement

Suppose Canadian home-owners owe an average of $185,000 on their mortgages. Assume that mortgage debt is normally distributed in Canada with a standard deviation of $85,000.

Standard Normal Distribution Table

a. Albertans are reported to owe $243,600 in mortgage debt, much higher than the Canadian average. What is the probability of randomly selecting a Canadian with mortgage debt that exceeds $243,600?

Round to four decimal places if necessary

b. What is the probability of randomly selecting a Canadian with mortgage debt below $97,000?

Round to four decimal places if necessary

c. Determine the minimum mortgage debt owing by the 24% of Canadians with the largest mortgages.

Round to the nearest dollar

Solution

Let's solve these problems step by step.

We are given the following information:

  • The mean mortgage debt, μ=185,000\mu = 185,000
  • The standard deviation of mortgage debt, σ=85,000\sigma = 85,000

We will use the standard normal distribution (Z-scores) to solve the problems.


(a) What is the probability of randomly selecting a Canadian with mortgage debt that exceeds 243,600243,600?

To find this, we will:

  1. Convert the debt amount into a Z-score using the formula: Z=XμσZ = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma} where XX is the given debt amount, μ\mu is the mean, and σ\sigma is the standard deviation.

  2. Use the standard normal distribution table to find the corresponding probability.

For X=243,600X = 243,600: Z=243,600185,00085,000=58,60085,0000.6894Z = \frac{243,600 - 185,000}{85,000} = \frac{58,600}{85,000} \approx 0.6894

Using the Z-table (or a calculator), the cumulative probability for Z=0.6894Z = 0.6894 is approximately P(Z0.6894)=0.7547P(Z \leq 0.6894) = 0.7547.

Therefore, the probability of exceeding this debt amount is: P(Z>0.6894)=10.7547=0.2453P(Z > 0.6894) = 1 - 0.7547 = 0.2453

Thus, the probability is approximately 0.2453.


(b) What is the probability of randomly selecting a Canadian with mortgage debt below 97,00097,000?

Again, we will:

  1. Calculate the Z-score for X=97,000X = 97,000: Z=97,000185,00085,000=88,00085,0001.0353Z = \frac{97,000 - 185,000}{85,000} = \frac{-88,000}{85,000} \approx -1.0353

  2. Use the Z-table to find the cumulative probability for Z=1.0353Z = -1.0353.

The cumulative probability for Z=1.0353Z = -1.0353 is approximately P(Z1.0353)=0.1506P(Z \leq -1.0353) = 0.1506.

Thus, the probability of selecting a Canadian with a mortgage debt below 97,00097,000 is approximately 0.1506.


(c) Determine the minimum mortgage debt owing by the 24% of Canadians with the largest mortgages.

To find this:

  1. We need to find the Z-score corresponding to the top 24% (i.e., the 76th percentile). From the Z-table, the Z-score for P(Z0.76)=0.76P(Z \leq 0.76) = 0.76 is approximately 0.7063.

  2. Convert this Z-score back into the mortgage debt amount using the formula: X=μ+ZσX = \mu + Z \cdot \sigma where μ=185,000\mu = 185,000 and σ=85,000\sigma = 85,000.

X=185,000+0.706385,000=185,000+60,035.5245,036X = 185,000 + 0.7063 \cdot 85,000 = 185,000 + 60,035.5 \approx 245,036

Thus, the minimum mortgage debt owing by the top 24% of Canadians is approximately $245,036.


Summary of answers:

  • (a) Probability of mortgage debt exceeding $243,600: 0.2453
  • (b) Probability of mortgage debt below $97,000: 0.1506
  • (c) Minimum mortgage debt for the top 24%: $245,036

Would you like further explanation or clarification on any of these steps?

Here are 5 related questions to further explore:

  1. How does increasing the standard deviation affect the probabilities in parts (a) and (b)?
  2. What is the probability of selecting a Canadian with mortgage debt between $97,000 and $243,600?
  3. What mortgage debt amount represents the 90th percentile of Canadians?
  4. If Albertans had a standard deviation of $90,000 instead, how would that affect the probability in part (a)?
  5. How would the minimum mortgage debt for the top 24% change if the average mortgage debt were $200,000?

Tip: When working with normal distributions, always convert the values into Z-scores to use the standard normal distribution table.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Normal Distribution
Z-Scores
Probability

Formulas

Z = (X - μ) / σ
P(Z ≤ z) = cumulative probability from Z-table

Theorems

Standard Normal Distribution Theorem

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 11-12