Math Problem Statement

The proportion of a certain community that has a certain medical condition is known to be .

A random sample of members of that community is taken, where "random" sample means that each selection in the sample is independent of the others.

Find the probability that the random sample taken has at least one member having that certain medical condition.

Probability =

Solution

To find the probability that a random sample has at least one member with the certain medical condition, we can use the concept of complementary probability.

Step 1: Define the problem

Let's denote:

  • pp as the proportion of the community that has the medical condition.
  • nn as the number of members in the sample.

We want to find the probability that at least one member in the sample has the medical condition.

Step 2: Calculate the probability of the complementary event

The complementary event is that none of the members in the sample have the medical condition.

The probability that a single member does not have the condition is 1p1 - p.

Since the sample is random and each selection is independent, the probability that none of the nn members have the condition is: (1p)n(1 - p)^n

Step 3: Calculate the desired probability

The probability that at least one member in the sample has the condition is the complement of the probability that none of the members have it. Thus: Probability=1(1p)n\text{Probability} = 1 - (1 - p)^n

Final Answer:

Probability=1(1p)n\text{Probability} = 1 - (1 - p)^n

This expression gives you the probability that at least one member in the sample has the medical condition.

Would you like further details on this problem, or have any questions? Here are some related questions:

  1. How would you calculate the probability if the sample size nn is known?
  2. What happens to the probability as nn increases?
  3. How does a change in pp affect the probability of finding at least one member with the condition?
  4. Can you explain the concept of complementary events with another example?
  5. What is the expected number of people in the sample who have the condition?

Tip: Complementary probability is a powerful tool, especially when it's easier to calculate the probability of the event not happening.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability Theory
Complementary Events
Random Sampling

Formulas

Probability of complementary events: P(A') = 1 - P(A)

Theorems

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Suitable Grade Level

Grades 10-12