Math Problem Statement

A company estimates that of their products will fail after the original warranty period but within two years of the purchase, with a replacement cost of .

If they offer a two-year extended warranty for , what is the company's expected value of each warranty sold?

Complete the table with the appropriate values. Be sure to include negatives where appropriate.

Outcomes Product fails within two years Product does not fail within two years Probability of each outcome Payoff of each outcome ($) Use the table to calculate the expected value. Express your answer to the nearest cent.

Company's expected value of the two-year extended warranty = $ Incorrect

Hint: Be sure to convert your percents to decimal form, i.e. `0.3% = 0.3/100 = 0.003.

Solution

Let's walk through the problem systematically to calculate the expected value (EV) of the extended warranty.

Step-by-Step Breakdown:

  1. Define the Variables:
    • Let pfp_f be the probability that a product fails within two years.
    • Let CrC_r be the replacement cost if the product fails.
    • Let WW be the cost of the two-year extended warranty.

The information given is as follows (you might need to fill in the missing values based on the data):

  • pfp_f is the probability of product failure within two years.
  • The replacement cost CrC_r is the cost to the company if the product fails.
  • The extended warranty cost WW is the amount the company charges customers for the extended warranty.
  1. Table Setup: We need to complete a table that captures the following:
OutcomeProduct fails within two yearsProduct does not fail within two years
Probability of each outcomepfp_f1pf1 - p_f
Payoff of each outcome ($)Cr+W-C_r + WWW

Where:

  • pfp_f is the probability of failure.
  • CrC_r is the cost of replacing a failed product (which is a loss for the company).
  • WW is the revenue the company receives from selling the extended warranty.
  1. Expected Value (EV) Formula: The expected value for the company is calculated as: EV=(pf×(Payoff when the product fails))+((1pf)×(Payoff when the product does not fail))\text{EV} = (p_f \times (\text{Payoff when the product fails})) + ((1 - p_f) \times (\text{Payoff when the product does not fail})) Substituting the payoffs from the table: EV=pf×(Cr+W)+(1pf)×W\text{EV} = p_f \times (-C_r + W) + (1 - p_f) \times W

  2. Fill in Missing Data and Calculate: You need to insert the actual numbers for pfp_f, CrC_r, and WW. Once those are provided, you can plug them into the formula and calculate the expected value of the two-year extended warranty.

Would you like to provide the missing values for pfp_f, CrC_r, and WW so I can complete the calculation?

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Expected Value
Decision Theory

Formulas

Expected Value (EV) = (p_f × (Payoff when the product fails)) + ((1 - p_f) × (Payoff when the product does not fail))

Theorems

Law of Total Expectation

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 9-12