Math Problem Statement
A company estimates that of their products will fail after the original warranty period but within two years of the purchase, with a replacement cost of .
If they offer a two-year extended warranty for , what is the company's expected value of each warranty sold?
Complete the table with the appropriate values. Be sure to include negatives where appropriate.
Outcomes Product fails within two years Product does not fail within two years Probability of each outcome Payoff of each outcome ($) Use the table to calculate the expected value. Express your answer to the nearest cent.
Company's expected value of the two-year extended warranty = $ Incorrect
Hint: Be sure to convert your percents to decimal form, i.e. `0.3% = 0.3/100 = 0.003.
Solution
Let's walk through the problem systematically to calculate the expected value (EV) of the extended warranty.
Step-by-Step Breakdown:
- Define the Variables:
- Let be the probability that a product fails within two years.
- Let be the replacement cost if the product fails.
- Let be the cost of the two-year extended warranty.
The information given is as follows (you might need to fill in the missing values based on the data):
- is the probability of product failure within two years.
- The replacement cost is the cost to the company if the product fails.
- The extended warranty cost is the amount the company charges customers for the extended warranty.
- Table Setup: We need to complete a table that captures the following:
Outcome | Product fails within two years | Product does not fail within two years |
---|---|---|
Probability of each outcome | ||
Payoff of each outcome ($) |
Where:
- is the probability of failure.
- is the cost of replacing a failed product (which is a loss for the company).
- is the revenue the company receives from selling the extended warranty.
-
Expected Value (EV) Formula: The expected value for the company is calculated as: Substituting the payoffs from the table:
-
Fill in Missing Data and Calculate: You need to insert the actual numbers for , , and . Once those are provided, you can plug them into the formula and calculate the expected value of the two-year extended warranty.
Would you like to provide the missing values for , , and so I can complete the calculation?
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Math Problem Analysis
Mathematical Concepts
Probability
Expected Value
Decision Theory
Formulas
Expected Value (EV) = (p_f × (Payoff when the product fails)) + ((1 - p_f) × (Payoff when the product does not fail))
Theorems
Law of Total Expectation
Suitable Grade Level
Grades 9-12
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