Math Problem Statement
Aldrich Ames is a convicted traitor who leaked American secrets to a foreign power. Yet Ames took routine lie detector tests and each time passed them. How can this be done? Recognizing control questions, employing unusual breathing patterns, biting one's tongue at the right time, pressing one's toes hard to the floor, and counting backwards by 7 are countermeasures that are difficult to detect but can change the results of a polygraph examination†. In fact, it is reported in Professor Ford's book that after only 20 minutes of instruction by "Buzz" Fay (a prison inmate), 85% of those trained were able to pass the polygraph examination even when guilty of a crime. Suppose that a random sample of seven students (in a psychology laboratory) are told a "secret" and then given instructions on how to pass the polygraph examination without revealing their knowledge of the secret. What are the following probabilities? (Round your answers to three decimal places.) A button hyperlink to the SALT program that reads: Use SALT. (a) All the students are able to pass the polygraph examination.
Solution
To solve this problem, we can model it using the binomial probability formula. The binomial probability formula is:
Where:
- is the probability of getting exactly successes in trials.
- is the number of trials (in this case, 7 students).
- is the number of successes (students passing the polygraph test).
- is the probability of success on a single trial (in this case, 85%, or 0.85).
- is the number of combinations of trials taken at a time.
(a) All the students are able to pass the polygraph examination.
This corresponds to the probability that all 7 students pass the test, i.e., successes out of trials. Using the binomial formula:
Now, calculate :
Thus, the probability that all 7 students pass the polygraph test is approximately 0.323.
Would you like further clarification or details?
Here are 5 follow-up questions to expand on this problem:
- What is the probability that exactly 6 students pass the polygraph test?
- How would the probability change if only 5 students were able to pass the polygraph?
- Can you calculate the probability that fewer than 5 students pass the polygraph?
- What are the assumptions behind using a binomial model in this scenario?
- How might increasing the sample size from 7 to 10 students affect the probability?
Tip: Binomial probability calculations are useful when dealing with independent trials where each trial has the same probability of success.
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Math Problem Analysis
Mathematical Concepts
Probability
Binomial Distribution
Formulas
P(X = k) = (n choose k) * p^k * (1 - p)^(n - k)
Theorems
Binomial Theorem
Suitable Grade Level
College Level
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