Math Problem Statement

Aldrich Ames is a convicted traitor who leaked American secrets to a foreign power. Yet Ames took routine lie detector tests and each time passed them. How can this be done? Recognizing control questions, employing unusual breathing patterns, biting one's tongue at the right time, pressing one's toes hard to the floor, and counting backwards by 7 are countermeasures that are difficult to detect but can change the results of a polygraph examination†. In fact, it is reported in Professor Ford's book that after only 20 minutes of instruction by "Buzz" Fay (a prison inmate), 85% of those trained were able to pass the polygraph examination even when guilty of a crime. Suppose that a random sample of seven students (in a psychology laboratory) are told a "secret" and then given instructions on how to pass the polygraph examination without revealing their knowledge of the secret. What are the following probabilities? (Round your answers to three decimal places.) A button hyperlink to the SALT program that reads: Use SALT. (a) All the students are able to pass the polygraph examination.

Solution

To solve this problem, we can model it using the binomial probability formula. The binomial probability formula is:

P(X=k)=(nk)pk(1p)nkP(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1 - p)^{n - k}

Where:

  • P(X=k)P(X = k) is the probability of getting exactly kk successes in nn trials.
  • nn is the number of trials (in this case, 7 students).
  • kk is the number of successes (students passing the polygraph test).
  • pp is the probability of success on a single trial (in this case, 85%, or 0.85).
  • (nk)\binom{n}{k} is the number of combinations of nn trials taken kk at a time.

(a) All the students are able to pass the polygraph examination.

This corresponds to the probability that all 7 students pass the test, i.e., k=7k = 7 successes out of n=7n = 7 trials. Using the binomial formula:

P(X=7)=(77)(0.85)7(10.85)77P(X = 7) = \binom{7}{7} (0.85)^7 (1 - 0.85)^{7 - 7}

P(X=7)=1(0.85)7(0.15)0=(0.85)7P(X = 7) = 1 \cdot (0.85)^7 \cdot (0.15)^0 = (0.85)^7

Now, calculate (0.85)7(0.85)^7:

P(X=7)0.857=0.323P(X = 7) \approx 0.85^7 = 0.323

Thus, the probability that all 7 students pass the polygraph test is approximately 0.323.

Would you like further clarification or details?

Here are 5 follow-up questions to expand on this problem:

  1. What is the probability that exactly 6 students pass the polygraph test?
  2. How would the probability change if only 5 students were able to pass the polygraph?
  3. Can you calculate the probability that fewer than 5 students pass the polygraph?
  4. What are the assumptions behind using a binomial model in this scenario?
  5. How might increasing the sample size from 7 to 10 students affect the probability?

Tip: Binomial probability calculations are useful when dealing with independent trials where each trial has the same probability of success.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Binomial Distribution

Formulas

P(X = k) = (n choose k) * p^k * (1 - p)^(n - k)

Theorems

Binomial Theorem

Suitable Grade Level

College Level