Math Problem Statement

A pharmaceutical company receives large shipments of aspirin tablets. The acceptance sampling plan is to randomly select and test 2020 ​tablets, then accept the whole batch if there is only one or none that​ doesn't meet the required specifications. If a particular shipment of thousands of aspirin tablets actually has a 22​% rate of​ defects, what is the probability that this whole shipment will be​ accepted? Question content area bottom Part 1 The probability that this whole shipment will be accepted is enter your response here. ​(Round to three decimal places as​ needed.)

Solution

The scenario describes a binomial probability problem, where we are trying to determine the probability that a shipment of aspirin tablets will be accepted. In this case:

  • The number of trials (tablets tested) n=2020n = 2020.
  • The probability of success (a defective tablet) p=0.22p = 0.22.
  • The acceptance criteria is 0 or 1 defective tablet.

The probability of exactly kk defective tablets in nn trials follows the binomial distribution formula:

P(X=k)=(nk)pk(1p)nkP(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} \cdot p^k \cdot (1-p)^{n-k}

We are interested in the probability that there are 0 or 1 defective tablet, which means we need to calculate:

P(X=0)+P(X=1)P(X = 0) + P(X = 1)

Step 1: Calculate P(X=0)P(X = 0)

P(X=0)=(20200)(0.22)0(0.78)2020P(X = 0) = \binom{2020}{0} \cdot (0.22)^0 \cdot (0.78)^{2020} P(X=0)=11(0.78)2020P(X = 0) = 1 \cdot 1 \cdot (0.78)^{2020}

Step 2: Calculate P(X=1)P(X = 1)

P(X=1)=(20201)(0.22)1(0.78)2019P(X = 1) = \binom{2020}{1} \cdot (0.22)^1 \cdot (0.78)^{2019} P(X=1)=20200.22(0.78)2019P(X = 1) = 2020 \cdot 0.22 \cdot (0.78)^{2019}

Let's calculate the values to find the total probability of acceptance.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Binomial Distribution

Formulas

P(X = k) = (n choose k) * p^k * (1-p)^(n-k)
P(acceptance) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1)

Theorems

Binomial Probability Theorem

Suitable Grade Level

Undergraduate or Advanced High School