Math Problem Statement

A poll of 20 adults is taken in a large city. The purpose is to determine whether they support banning smoking in restaurants. It is known that approximately 60% of the population supports the decision. Let x represent the number of respiondents in favor of the decision. What is the probability that 5 respondents support the decision?

Solution

To find the probability that exactly 5 respondents out of 20 support the decision, we can use the binomial probability formula. The binomial probability formula is:

P(X=k)=(nk)pk(1p)nkP(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k}

where

  • nn is the total number of trials (in this case, 20),
  • kk is the number of successful trials (in this case, 5),
  • pp is the probability of success on a single trial (in this case, 0.6),
  • (1p)(1-p) is the probability of failure on a single trial,
  • and (nk)\binom{n}{k} is the binomial coefficient, calculated as n!k!(nk)!\frac{n!}{k!(n-k)!}.

Substitute the given values into the formula:

P(X=5)=(205)(0.6)5(0.4)15P(X = 5) = \binom{20}{5} (0.6)^5 (0.4)^{15}

First, calculate the binomial coefficient:

(205)=20!5!(205)!=20×19×18×17×165×4×3×2×1=15504\binom{20}{5} = \frac{20!}{5!(20-5)!} = \frac{20 \times 19 \times 18 \times 17 \times 16}{5 \times 4 \times 3 \times 2 \times 1} = 15504

Now calculate (0.6)5(0.6)^5 and (0.4)15(0.4)^{15}:

(0.6)5=0.6×0.6×0.6×0.6×0.6=0.07776(0.6)^5 = 0.6 \times 0.6 \times 0.6 \times 0.6 \times 0.6 = 0.07776

(0.4)15=0.415=1.073741824×106(0.4)^{15} = 0.4^{15} = 1.073741824 \times 10^{-6}

Combine these calculations for the probability:

P(X=5)=15504×0.07776×1.073741824×106P(X = 5) = 15504 \times 0.07776 \times 1.073741824 \times 10^{-6}

P(X=5)=15504×0.07776×0.000001073741824P(X = 5) = 15504 \times 0.07776 \times 0.000001073741824

P(X=5)0.000428P(X = 5) \approx 0.000428

So, the probability that exactly 5 respondents support the decision is approximately 0.000428, or 0.0428%.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Binomial Distribution

Formulas

P(X = k) = C(n, k) * p^k * (1-p)^(n-k)
C(n, k) = n! / (k!(n-k)!)

Theorems

Binomial Probability Theorem

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 10-12