Math Problem Statement

Assume that a procedure yields a binomial distribution with a trial repeated nequals30 times. Use the binomial probability formula to find the probability of xequals5 successes given the probability pequalsone fifth of success on a single trial. Round to three decimal places. Question content area bottom Part 1 A. 0.198 B. 0.421 C. 0.172 D. 0.067

Solution

To solve this problem, we will use the binomial probability formula:

P(X=x)=(nx)px(1p)nxP(X = x) = \binom{n}{x} p^x (1-p)^{n-x}

where:

  • n=30n = 30 (the number of trials),
  • x=5x = 5 (the number of successes),
  • p=15p = \frac{1}{5} (the probability of success on a single trial),
  • 1p=451-p = \frac{4}{5} (the probability of failure on a single trial),
  • (nx)\binom{n}{x} is the binomial coefficient, which can be calculated as n!x!(nx)!\frac{n!}{x!(n-x)!}.

Step-by-Step Calculation

  1. Binomial Coefficient: (305)=30!5!(305)!=30×29×28×27×265×4×3×2×1=142506\binom{30}{5} = \frac{30!}{5!(30-5)!} = \frac{30 \times 29 \times 28 \times 27 \times 26}{5 \times 4 \times 3 \times 2 \times 1} = 142506

  2. Calculating the Probability: We now substitute into the binomial formula: P(X=5)=142506×(15)5×(45)25P(X = 5) = 142506 \times \left(\frac{1}{5}\right)^5 \times \left(\frac{4}{5}\right)^{25}

  3. Simplify: P(X=5)=142506×13125×(0.8)25P(X = 5) = 142506 \times \frac{1}{3125} \times \left(0.8\right)^{25}

  4. Evaluate Powers: (0.8)250.003174\left(0.8\right)^{25} \approx 0.003174

  5. Final Probability Calculation: P(X=5)142506×13125×0.0031740.067P(X = 5) \approx 142506 \times \frac{1}{3125} \times 0.003174 \approx 0.067

Answer:

The probability of exactly 5 successes is approximately 0.067.

So, the correct answer is:

D. 0.067


Would you like to see more examples, or have any questions about this problem? Here are some related questions to expand your understanding:

  1. How would the probability change if the number of trials were increased to 40?
  2. What happens to the binomial probability when p=0.5p = 0.5?
  3. How do you interpret the binomial distribution in terms of a real-world scenario?
  4. What is the relationship between the binomial distribution and the normal distribution for large nn?
  5. How would the calculation change if you were looking for the probability of at least 5 successes?

Tip: When working with binomial probabilities, always check if the problem can be approximated using a normal distribution for large nn. This can save computation time.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Binomial Distribution
Probability
Combinatorics

Formulas

P(X = x) = C(n, x) * p^x * (1-p)^(n-x)
Binomial Coefficient: C(n, x) = n! / (x!(n-x)!)

Theorems

Binomial Distribution Theorem

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 9-12