Math Problem Statement

A particular telephone number is used to receive both voice calls and fax messages. Suppose that 40% of the incoming calls involve fax messages, and consider a sample of 15 incoming calls.

A button hyperlink to the SALT program that reads: Use SALT.

(a)

What is the expected number of calls among the 15 that involve a fax message?

E(X) =

(b)

What is the standard deviation of the number among the 15 calls that involve a fax message? (Round your answer to three decimal places.)

(c)

What is the probability that the number of calls among the 15 that involve a fax transmission exceeds the expected number by more than 2 standard deviations? (Round your answer to three decimal places.)

Solution

Let's break down the problem step by step.

Given:

  • Probability of an incoming call involving a fax: p=0.40p = 0.40
  • Sample size: n=15n = 15
  • Number of calls is modeled using a Binomial Distribution: XBinomial(n=15,p=0.40)X \sim \text{Binomial}(n = 15, p = 0.40)

Part (a) - Expected Value

The expected number of calls involving a fax is given by the formula for the expected value of a binomial distribution: E(X)=npE(X) = n \cdot p Substitute the values of nn and pp: E(X)=150.40=6E(X) = 15 \cdot 0.40 = 6

So, the expected number of fax-related calls is: E(X)=6E(X) = 6

Part (b) - Standard Deviation

The standard deviation for a binomial distribution is given by: σ=np(1p)\sigma = \sqrt{n \cdot p \cdot (1 - p)} Substitute the values: σ=150.40(10.40)=150.400.60\sigma = \sqrt{15 \cdot 0.40 \cdot (1 - 0.40)} = \sqrt{15 \cdot 0.40 \cdot 0.60} Let's calculate that.

σ=150.400.60=3.61.897\sigma = \sqrt{15 \cdot 0.40 \cdot 0.60} = \sqrt{3.6} \approx 1.897

So, the standard deviation is approximately: σ1.897\sigma \approx 1.897

Part (c) - Probability of Exceeding the Expected Number by More than 2 Standard Deviations

We need to find the probability that the number of calls exceeds the expected value by more than 2 standard deviations. This means we are interested in:

P(X>E(X)+2σ)P(X > E(X) + 2\sigma)

Using the values from parts (a) and (b): E(X)+2σ=6+2×1.8976+3.794=9.794E(X) + 2\sigma = 6 + 2 \times 1.897 \approx 6 + 3.794 = 9.794

So we want to calculate P(X>9.794)P(X > 9.794), which is the probability that more than 9.794 calls involve a fax. Since XX is discrete, this is equivalent to finding P(X10)P(X \geq 10).

We will calculate P(X10)P(X \geq 10) using the binomial distribution formula or a binomial calculator.

Let me calculate that for you.

The probability that the number of calls involving a fax exceeds the expected number by more than 2 standard deviations is approximately:

P(X10)0.034P(X \geq 10) \approx 0.034

Summary of Results:

  • (a) Expected number of fax-related calls: E(X)=6E(X) = 6
  • (b) Standard deviation: σ1.897\sigma \approx 1.897
  • (c) Probability that the number of calls exceeds the expected number by more than 2 standard deviations: P(X10)0.034P(X \geq 10) \approx 0.034

Do you want more details or have any other questions?

Here are 5 related questions to explore:

  1. How would the expected number change if the probability of a fax call was 60%?
  2. What is the probability that exactly 8 calls involve a fax transmission?
  3. What is the cumulative probability that at most 5 calls involve a fax transmission?
  4. How would the standard deviation change for a sample of 25 calls?
  5. How can we approximate the binomial distribution using a normal distribution for large nn?

Tip: The binomial distribution is symmetric when p=0.5p = 0.5, but becomes skewed when pp is far from 0.5.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Binomial Distribution
Expected Value
Standard Deviation

Formulas

E(X) = n * p
σ = sqrt(n * p * (1 - p))
P(X > E(X) + 2σ)

Theorems

Binomial Probability Theorem

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 11-12