Math Problem Statement

The personnel director of a large hospital is interested in determining the relationship (if any) between an employee’s age and the number of sick days the employee takes per year. The director randomly selects ten employees and records their age and the number of sick days which they took in the previous year.

Employee 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Age 30 50 40 55 30 28 60 25 30 45 Sick Days 7 4 3 2 9 10 0 8 5 2

The estimated regression equation and the standard error are given.

Sick Days=14.310162−0.236900(Age)

Se=1.682207

Find the 95% prediction interval for the average number of sick days an employee will take per year, given the employee is 34 . Round your answer to two decimal places.

Solution

To find the 95% prediction interval for the average number of sick days an employee will take given an age of 34, we can use the prediction interval formula. The prediction interval for a value y^\hat{y} at a specific xx is given by:

y^±tα/2,n2×Se1+1n+(xxˉ)2(xixˉ)2\hat{y} \pm t_{\alpha/2, n-2} \times S_e \sqrt{1 + \frac{1}{n} + \frac{(x - \bar{x})^2}{\sum (x_i - \bar{x})^2}}

where:

  • y^\hat{y} is the predicted value for the given xx,
  • tα/2,n2t_{\alpha/2, n-2} is the critical t-value for a 95% confidence level with n2n - 2 degrees of freedom,
  • SeS_e is the standard error,
  • xx is the specific age for prediction (34),
  • xˉ\bar{x} is the mean of the sample ages,
  • nn is the sample size.

Step 1: Calculate y^\hat{y}

Given the regression equation: Sick Days=14.3101620.236900×Age\text{Sick Days} = 14.310162 - 0.236900 \times \text{Age} we substitute Age = 34: y^=14.3101620.236900×34\hat{y} = 14.310162 - 0.236900 \times 34

Step 2: Calculate the mean of the sample ages (xˉ\bar{x})

The ages are: 30, 50, 40, 55, 30, 28, 60, 25, 30, 45.

Step 3: Calculate the sum of squared deviations from the mean ((xixˉ)2\sum (x_i - \bar{x})^2)

Step 4: Determine the t-value for a 95% prediction interval with n2=8n-2 = 8 degrees of freedom.

Let's calculate this.The 95% prediction interval for the average number of sick days an employee will take per year, given the employee is 34 years old, is approximately 2.152.15 to 10.3610.36 days.

Would you like a detailed breakdown of each calculation step, or do you have further questions?

Here are some related questions:

  1. How would the prediction interval change with different confidence levels?
  2. What would be the interval if the standard error, SeS_e, were lower?
  3. How does increasing the sample size impact the width of the prediction interval?
  4. What is the interpretation of the regression slope 0.236900-0.236900 in this context?
  5. How does the variability in ages affect the accuracy of predictions?

Tip: Remember, wider intervals imply greater uncertainty; smaller intervals reflect more precise predictions.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Regression Analysis
Prediction Intervals
Statistics

Formulas

Sick Days = 14.310162 - 0.236900 * Age
Prediction Interval: \hat{y} \pm t_{\alpha/2, n-2} \times S_e \sqrt{1 + \frac{1}{n} + \frac{(x - \bar{x})^2}{\sum (x_i - \bar{x})^2}}

Theorems

Prediction Interval Formula for Regression
t-Distribution for Confidence Intervals

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 11-12