Math Problem Statement
To select a value for α for exponential smoothing Group of answer choices
use a small α when the series varies substantially.
use a large α when the series has little random variability.
All of the alternatives are true.
use a value between 0 and 1
Solution
The correct answer is:
All of the alternatives are true.
Here's why:
- Use a small α when the series varies substantially: A smaller α gives more weight to past observations, which is helpful when the data is volatile, so it smooths out random fluctuations.
- Use a large α when the series has little random variability: A larger α gives more weight to recent observations, which is effective when the data has less random variation and trends can be captured more quickly.
- Use a value between 0 and 1: This is a fundamental rule of exponential smoothing; the smoothing constant α must always be between 0 and 1 to ensure a meaningful combination of previous and current observations.
Do you need more details on exponential smoothing or have any other questions?
Here are five related questions:
- How does exponential smoothing differ from moving averages?
- What happens when you set α to 1 or 0?
- How do you select an optimal value of α for a given dataset?
- What are the limitations of exponential smoothing in forecasting?
- How does exponential smoothing handle seasonal variations?
Tip: When using exponential smoothing, test different α values to see which provides the most accurate forecasts based on past performance.
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Math Problem Analysis
Mathematical Concepts
Statistics
Time Series Analysis
Exponential Smoothing
Formulas
Exponential Smoothing Formula: S_t = α * X_t + (1 - α) * S_(t-1)
Theorems
None explicitly, but based on the principle of weighted averages
Suitable Grade Level
Undergraduate level
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