Math Problem Statement

Multiple choice questions each have four possible answers (a.b,c,d) one of which is correct. Assume that you guess the answers to three such questions. A. Use the multiplication rule to find P(WCC), where c denotes a correct answer and W denotes a wrong answer. P(WCC) = (type and exact answer) B. Beginning with WCC, make a complete list of the different possible arrangements of two current answers and one wrong answer, then find the probability for each entry in the list P(WCC)-see above P(CCW)=
P(CWC)= (Type exact answers) C. Based on the preceding results, find the probability of getting exactly two correct answers when three guesses are made? (Type an exact answer )

Solution

Solution:

A. Using the multiplication rule to find P(WCC)P(WCC):

  • Probability of a wrong answer: P(W)=34P(W) = \frac{3}{4} (since 3 out of 4 answers are incorrect).
  • Probability of a correct answer: P(C)=14P(C) = \frac{1}{4} (since 1 out of 4 answers is correct).
  • Multiplication rule for P(WCC)P(WCC): Multiply the probabilities for one wrong followed by two correct answers:

P(WCC)=P(W)P(C)P(C)=341414=364.P(WCC) = P(W) \cdot P(C) \cdot P(C) = \frac{3}{4} \cdot \frac{1}{4} \cdot \frac{1}{4} = \frac{3}{64}.

Thus, P(WCC)=364P(WCC) = \frac{3}{64}.


B. Complete list of arrangements of two correct answers and one wrong answer:

The arrangements of two correct answers (C) and one wrong answer (W) are:

  1. WCCWCC
  2. CCWCCW
  3. CWCCWC

For each case, the probability is calculated similarly:

  1. P(WCC)=364P(WCC) = \frac{3}{64} (calculated above).
  2. P(CCW)=P(C)P(C)P(W)=141434=364.P(CCW) = P(C) \cdot P(C) \cdot P(W) = \frac{1}{4} \cdot \frac{1}{4} \cdot \frac{3}{4} = \frac{3}{64}.
  3. P(CWC)=P(C)P(W)P(C)=143414=364.P(CWC) = P(C) \cdot P(W) \cdot P(C) = \frac{1}{4} \cdot \frac{3}{4} \cdot \frac{1}{4} = \frac{3}{64}.

Thus: P(WCC)=364,P(CCW)=364,P(CWC)=364.P(WCC) = \frac{3}{64}, \quad P(CCW) = \frac{3}{64}, \quad P(CWC) = \frac{3}{64}.


C. Probability of getting exactly two correct answers:

The total probability of getting exactly two correct answers is the sum of the probabilities for all three arrangements:

P(exactly two correct)=P(WCC)+P(CCW)+P(CWC)=364+364+364=964.P(\text{exactly two correct}) = P(WCC) + P(CCW) + P(CWC) = \frac{3}{64} + \frac{3}{64} + \frac{3}{64} = \frac{9}{64}.

Thus, the probability is: P(exactly two correct)=964.P(\text{exactly two correct}) = \frac{9}{64}.


Final Answers:

A. P(WCC)=364P(WCC) = \frac{3}{64}

B.

  • P(WCC)=364P(WCC) = \frac{3}{64}
  • P(CCW)=364P(CCW) = \frac{3}{64}
  • P(CWC)=364P(CWC) = \frac{3}{64}

C. P(exactly two correct)=964P(\text{exactly two correct}) = \frac{9}{64}


Let me know if you'd like further clarification or detailed explanation!


5 Related Questions:

  1. How does the multiplication rule apply when more than three guesses are made?
  2. What is the probability of getting no correct answers in three guesses?
  3. How does the probability change if the number of answer choices increases to five?
  4. What is the expected number of correct answers in this scenario?
  5. How would you calculate the probability of getting at least one correct answer?

Tip:

Always verify the total probabilities add up to 1 when analyzing all possible outcomes of a probability distribution.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Combinatorics

Formulas

Multiplication Rule of Probability: P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B)
Sum of Probabilities: P(total) = P(WCC) + P(CCW) + P(CWC)

Theorems

Basic Probability Rules

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 9-12