Math Problem Statement

The mean cost of a five pound bag of shrimp is 50 dollars with a standard deviation of 8 dollars.

If a sample of 56 bags of shrimp is randomly selected, what is the probability that the sample mean would be less than 49.1 dollars? Round your answer to four decimal places.

Solution

To find the probability that the sample mean is less than 49.1 dollars, we can use the Central Limit Theorem. Here’s how we can approach this:

Step 1: Identify the known values

  • Population mean (μ) = 50 dollars
  • Population standard deviation (σ) = 8 dollars
  • Sample size (n) = 56
  • Sample mean (x̄) we are testing for = 49.1 dollars

Step 2: Calculate the standard error of the mean (SEM)

The standard error of the mean is calculated as:

SEM=σn\text{SEM} = \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}

Substituting in the values:

SEM=8561.0690\text{SEM} = \frac{8}{\sqrt{56}} \approx 1.0690

Step 3: Calculate the Z-score

The Z-score formula for a sample mean is:

Z=xˉμSEMZ = \frac{x̄ - μ}{\text{SEM}}

Substituting in our values:

Z=49.1501.06900.8424Z = \frac{49.1 - 50}{1.0690} \approx -0.8424

Step 4: Find the probability

Using the Z-score of -0.8424, we can look up the probability in a standard normal distribution table or use a calculator to find the cumulative probability for Z=0.8424Z = -0.8424.

P(Z<0.8424)0.2005P(Z < -0.8424) \approx 0.2005

Final Answer

The probability that the sample mean would be less than 49.1 dollars is approximately 0.2005.

Would you like more details, or do you have questions on any step?


Here are five questions that expand on this concept:

  1. How would the probability change if the standard deviation were larger?
  2. What would the probability be if the sample size was increased to 100?
  3. How does the Central Limit Theorem apply to this problem?
  4. How can this type of probability calculation be used in real-world scenarios?
  5. What is the significance of using a Z-score in probability calculations?

Tip: For larger sample sizes, the standard error decreases, making the sampling distribution of the mean more concentrated around the population mean.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Statistics
Probability
Normal Distribution
Central Limit Theorem
Z-score

Formulas

Standard Error of the Mean (SEM) = σ / √n
Z-score = (x̄ - μ) / SEM

Theorems

Central Limit Theorem

Suitable Grade Level

College/University (Statistics Course)