Math Problem Statement

A binomial experiment with probability of success p = 0.37 and n = 11 trials is conducted. What is the probability that the experiment results in more than 1 success?

Solution

The problem presented involves a binomial distribution, where the number of trials n=11n = 11 and the probability of success in each trial p=0.37p = 0.37. The question asks for the probability that the experiment results in more than 1 success.

To solve this, we will compute the cumulative probability for having 1 or fewer successes and then subtract that from 1 to find the probability of having more than 1 success.

Steps to Solve:

  1. Binomial Formula: The probability of getting exactly kk successes in nn independent trials is given by the binomial probability formula: P(X=k)=(nk)pk(1p)nkP(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k} Where:

    • (nk)\binom{n}{k} is the binomial coefficient, calculated as n!k!(nk)!\frac{n!}{k!(n-k)!}.
    • p=0.37p = 0.37 is the probability of success.
    • 1p=0.631 - p = 0.63 is the probability of failure.
  2. Cumulative Probability for X1X \leq 1: We will calculate the probabilities for X=0X = 0 and X=1X = 1, then sum them up.

    • For X=0X = 0: P(X=0)=(110)(0.37)0(0.63)11=(1)(1)(0.6311)P(X = 0) = \binom{11}{0} (0.37)^0 (0.63)^{11} = (1)(1)(0.63^{11})
    • For X=1X = 1: P(X=1)=(111)(0.37)1(0.63)10=(11)(0.37)(0.6310)P(X = 1) = \binom{11}{1} (0.37)^1 (0.63)^{10} = (11)(0.37)(0.63^{10})
  3. Probability of More than 1 Success: Once we compute P(X=0)P(X = 0) and P(X=1)P(X = 1), we subtract their sum from 1: P(X>1)=1(P(X=0)+P(X=1))P(X > 1) = 1 - (P(X = 0) + P(X = 1))

I will compute the values based on these formulas.

Computation:

  • P(X=0)=0.06344P(X = 0) = 0.06344
  • P(X=1)=0.18844P(X = 1) = 0.18844

Now, summing those: P(X1)=P(X=0)+P(X=1)=0.06344+0.18844=0.25188P(X \leq 1) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) = 0.06344 + 0.18844 = 0.25188

Finally, the probability of more than 1 success: P(X>1)=10.25188=0.74812P(X > 1) = 1 - 0.25188 = 0.74812

Final Answer:

The probability that the experiment results in more than 1 success is approximately 0.748.

Would you like more details on any of the steps or further clarifications?


Related Questions:

  1. How would the probability change if the probability of success pp was higher?
  2. What is the probability of getting exactly 5 successes in this scenario?
  3. How does the binomial distribution compare to a normal distribution for large nn?
  4. How can we generalize the binomial formula for different values of kk?
  5. What is the mean and standard deviation of this binomial distribution?

Tip: Always check if a binomial distribution can be approximated by a normal distribution when the number of trials nn is large!

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Binomial Distribution
Probability Theory

Formulas

P(X = k) = (n choose k) * p^k * (1 - p)^(n - k)
Cumulative probability P(X ≤ 1)
P(X > 1) = 1 - P(X ≤ 1)

Theorems

Binomial Theorem
Cumulative Distribution Function

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 11-12, College Introductory Statistics