Math Problem Statement

Consider writing onto a computer disk and then sending it through a certifier that counts the number of missing pulses. Suppose this number X has a Poisson distribution with parameter 𝜇 =0.5. (Round your answers to three decimal places.)

(a) What is the probability that a disk has exactly one missing pulse?

(b) What is the probability that a disk has at least two missing pulses?

(c) If two disks are independently selected, what is the probability that neither contains a missing pulse?

Solution

We are given a Poisson distribution with parameter μ=0.5\mu = 0.5, where XX represents the number of missing pulses on a disk. The probability mass function (PMF) for a Poisson distribution is given by:

P(X=k)=μkeμk!P(X = k) = \frac{\mu^k e^{-\mu}}{k!}

where:

  • μ=0.5\mu = 0.5,
  • kk is the number of missing pulses (a non-negative integer),
  • ee is the base of the natural logarithm.

(a) Probability that a disk has exactly one missing pulse:

We need to calculate P(X=1)P(X = 1), which is the probability of exactly one missing pulse:

P(X=1)=0.51e0.51!P(X = 1) = \frac{0.5^1 e^{-0.5}}{1!}

Let's compute this.

P(X=1)=0.5e0.51=0.5e0.5P(X = 1) = \frac{0.5 e^{-0.5}}{1} = 0.5 \cdot e^{-0.5}

P(X=1)0.50.606531=0.303P(X = 1) \approx 0.5 \cdot 0.606531 = 0.303

Thus, the probability that a disk has exactly one missing pulse is approximately:

P(X=1)=0.303P(X = 1) = 0.303

(b) Probability that a disk has at least two missing pulses:

The probability of having at least two missing pulses is P(X2)P(X \geq 2). To compute this, we can use the complement rule:

P(X2)=1P(X<2)=1P(X=0)P(X=1)P(X \geq 2) = 1 - P(X < 2) = 1 - P(X = 0) - P(X = 1)

We already know P(X=1)0.303P(X = 1) \approx 0.303. Now, let's calculate P(X=0)P(X = 0):

P(X=0)=0.50e0.50!=e0.5=0.606531P(X = 0) = \frac{0.5^0 e^{-0.5}}{0!} = e^{-0.5} = 0.606531

Now we can find P(X2)P(X \geq 2):

P(X2)=1(P(X=0)+P(X=1))=1(0.606531+0.303)P(X \geq 2) = 1 - (P(X = 0) + P(X = 1)) = 1 - (0.606531 + 0.303)

P(X2)=10.909531=0.090P(X \geq 2) = 1 - 0.909531 = 0.090

Thus, the probability that a disk has at least two missing pulses is approximately:

P(X2)=0.090P(X \geq 2) = 0.090

(c) Probability that neither of two disks contains a missing pulse:

The probability that a disk contains no missing pulses is P(X=0)P(X = 0), which we have already computed:

P(X=0)=0.606531P(X = 0) = 0.606531

Since the two disks are independently selected, the probability that neither contains a missing pulse is the product of the probabilities for each disk:

P(neither disk has a missing pulse)=P(X=0)×P(X=0)P(\text{neither disk has a missing pulse}) = P(X = 0) \times P(X = 0)

P(neither disk has a missing pulse)=0.606531×0.6065310.368P(\text{neither disk has a missing pulse}) = 0.606531 \times 0.606531 \approx 0.368

Thus, the probability that neither of the two disks contains a missing pulse is approximately:

P(neither disk has a missing pulse)=0.368P(\text{neither disk has a missing pulse}) = 0.368

Summary of results:

(a) The probability that a disk has exactly one missing pulse is P(X=1)=0.303P(X = 1) = 0.303.

(b) The probability that a disk has at least two missing pulses is P(X2)=0.090P(X \geq 2) = 0.090.

(c) The probability that neither of two disks contains a missing pulse is P(neither disk has a missing pulse)=0.368P(\text{neither disk has a missing pulse}) = 0.368.


Would you like more details on any of these steps or have any questions?

Here are 5 related questions to deepen your understanding:

  1. What is the probability that a disk has zero missing pulses?
  2. How does the probability change if the Poisson parameter μ\mu is increased to 1?
  3. What is the expected number of missing pulses on a disk?
  4. If five disks are selected, what is the probability that exactly three disks have no missing pulses?
  5. How does the independence assumption between disks affect the calculations?

Tip: The Poisson distribution is often used to model rare events occurring over a fixed interval, such as missing pulses in a disk or defects in a manufactured item.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Poisson Distribution
Complement Rule

Formulas

P(X = k) = (𝜇^k * e^(-𝜇)) / k!
P(X ≥ 2) = 1 - P(X = 0) - P(X = 1)
P(neither disk has a missing pulse) = P(X = 0) * P(X = 0)

Theorems

Poisson Distribution Theorem

Suitable Grade Level

Undergraduate Probability