Math Problem Statement

Consider a Melanesian island nation in the South Pacific which had a population of 0.88 million in 2010. The table below presents the nominal GDP and the GDP deflator (based on 2005 being the base year) for the years 2010, 2015, and 2020.

Year 2010 2015 2020 Nominal GDP ($Billions) 17500 18222 18755 GDP Deflator 103.7 104.8 105.9 Over each 5-year period, there were no significant changes to government policies or capital investment, and the country experienced a net migration of 0%. However, over the first five years (2010 to 2015), the growth rate of births was 12.5% while the growth rate of deaths was 7.5%. Over the second five years (2015 to 2020), health care improved significantly such that the growth rate of births increased to 15% while the growth rate of deaths decreased to 5%.

The percentage change in real GDP per capita for the first five years is

Solution

To calculate the percentage change in real GDP per capita for the first five years (2010 to 2015), we'll follow these steps:

Step 1: Calculate the Real GDP for 2010 and 2015

The formula for real GDP is:

Real GDP=Nominal GDPGDP Deflator×100\text{Real GDP} = \frac{\text{Nominal GDP}}{\text{GDP Deflator}} \times 100

  • 2010: Real GDP2010=17.5 billion103.7×100=17.51.03716.87 billion\text{Real GDP}_{2010} = \frac{17.5 \text{ billion}}{103.7} \times 100 = \frac{17.5}{1.037} \approx 16.87 \text{ billion}
  • 2015: Real GDP2015=18.222 billion104.8×100=18.2221.04817.38 billion\text{Real GDP}_{2015} = \frac{18.222 \text{ billion}}{104.8} \times 100 = \frac{18.222}{1.048} \approx 17.38 \text{ billion}

Step 2: Calculate the Population Growth from 2010 to 2015

The initial population in 2010 is 0.88 million.

Given the growth rates of births and deaths:

  • Birth rate growth: 12.5%
  • Death rate growth: 7.5%

The net population growth rate is:

Net Population Growth Rate=12.5%7.5%=5%\text{Net Population Growth Rate} = 12.5\% - 7.5\% = 5\%

Thus, the population in 2015 is:

Population2015=Population2010×(1+0.05)=0.88×1.05=0.924 million\text{Population}_{2015} = \text{Population}_{2010} \times (1 + 0.05) = 0.88 \times 1.05 = 0.924 \text{ million}

Step 3: Calculate Real GDP Per Capita for 2010 and 2015

Now, we calculate the real GDP per capita for 2010 and 2015.

  • 2010: Real GDP per Capita2010=Real GDP2010Population2010=16.87 billion0.88 million=16,8700.88=19,170.45 dollars\text{Real GDP per Capita}_{2010} = \frac{\text{Real GDP}_{2010}}{\text{Population}_{2010}} = \frac{16.87 \text{ billion}}{0.88 \text{ million}} = \frac{16,870}{0.88} = 19,170.45 \text{ dollars}
  • 2015: Real GDP per Capita2015=Real GDP2015Population2015=17.38 billion0.924 million=17,3800.92418,810.39 dollars\text{Real GDP per Capita}_{2015} = \frac{\text{Real GDP}_{2015}}{\text{Population}_{2015}} = \frac{17.38 \text{ billion}}{0.924 \text{ million}} = \frac{17,380}{0.924} \approx 18,810.39 \text{ dollars}

Step 4: Calculate the Percentage Change in Real GDP Per Capita

The percentage change in real GDP per capita from 2010 to 2015 is given by:

Percentage Change=Real GDP per Capita2015Real GDP per Capita2010Real GDP per Capita2010×100\text{Percentage Change} = \frac{\text{Real GDP per Capita}_{2015} - \text{Real GDP per Capita}_{2010}}{\text{Real GDP per Capita}_{2010}} \times 100

Percentage Change=18,810.3919,170.4519,170.45×100360.0619,170.45×1001.88%\text{Percentage Change} = \frac{18,810.39 - 19,170.45}{19,170.45} \times 100 \approx \frac{-360.06}{19,170.45} \times 100 \approx -1.88\%

Thus, the percentage change in real GDP per capita from 2010 to 2015 is approximately -1.88%.

Summary

The percentage change in real GDP per capita for the first five years (2010 to 2015) is approximately -1.88%.


Would you like further details on any part of this calculation?

Here are some related questions:

  1. How is real GDP different from nominal GDP?
  2. How does population growth impact GDP per capita?
  3. What is the significance of the GDP deflator in economic analysis?
  4. How can birth and death rates affect a country's economic performance?
  5. How might changes in healthcare influence long-term economic growth?

Tip: When analyzing GDP data over time, always adjust for inflation using real GDP to get a clearer picture of economic growth.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Economics
Population Growth
Real GDP per Capita

Formulas

Real GDP = Nominal GDP / GDP Deflator * 100
Net Population Growth Rate = Birth Rate Growth - Death Rate Growth
Real GDP per Capita = Real GDP / Population
Percentage Change in Real GDP per Capita = (Real GDP per Capita_final - Real GDP per Capita_initial) / Real GDP per Capita_initial * 100

Theorems

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Suitable Grade Level

College Level Economics