Math Problem Statement

The records of a light bulb manufacturer show that, when the manufacturing machinery is working correctly, the defect rate (due to imperfections in the material used) is 1%. The manufacturer’s control department periodically tests samples of the bulbs, and when 1.25% or more are defective, they call repair technicians for service. The control department is going to take a random sample of 4400 light bulbs. Let \(\hat{P}\) be the proportion of defective light bulbs in the sample assuming the machinery is working correctly. Answer the following: (a) Find the mean of \(\hat{P}\). (b) Find the standard deviation of \(\hat{P}\). (c) Compute \(P(\hat{P} \geq 0.0125)\), which is the probability that, assuming the machinery is working correctly, the repair technicians will be called. Round your answer to four decimal places.

Solution

To solve the problem in the image, let's address each part step by step:


Problem Setup:

  • Population defect rate (pp) = 1% or 0.01.
  • Sample size (nn) = 4400.
  • Sample proportion of defects is denoted by P^\hat{P}.

(a) Find the mean of P^\hat{P}:

The mean of the sample proportion (E[P^]E[\hat{P}]) is equal to the population proportion (pp):

E[P^]=p=0.01E[\hat{P}] = p = 0.01


(b) Find the standard deviation of P^\hat{P}:

The standard deviation of the sample proportion (σP^\sigma_{\hat{P}}) is given by:

σP^=p(1p)n\sigma_{\hat{P}} = \sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n}}

Substitute the values:

σP^=0.01(10.01)4400=0.010.994400=0.009944000.000002250.0015\sigma_{\hat{P}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.01(1 - 0.01)}{4400}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.01 \cdot 0.99}{4400}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.0099}{4400}} \approx \sqrt{0.00000225} \approx 0.0015


(c) Compute P(P^0.0125)P(\hat{P} \geq 0.0125):

To calculate this, we need the z-score:

z=P^pσP^z = \frac{\hat{P} - p}{\sigma_{\hat{P}}}

Substitute the values:

z=0.01250.010.0015=0.00250.00151.67z = \frac{0.0125 - 0.01}{0.0015} = \frac{0.0025}{0.0015} \approx 1.67

Now, find the probability using the z-table or standard normal distribution. The probability that corresponds to z=1.67z = 1.67 is approximately 0.9525.

Thus, the probability of exceeding this is:

P(P^0.0125)=10.9525=0.0475P(\hat{P} \geq 0.0125) = 1 - 0.9525 = 0.0475


Final Answers:

  1. (a) Mean = 0.010.01.
  2. (b) Standard deviation = 0.00150.0015.
  3. (c) Probability = 0.04750.0475 (rounded to four decimal places).

Would you like me to explain any part in more detail or provide a breakdown of the z-score calculation? Here are 5 related questions to expand your understanding:

  1. What happens to the standard deviation if the sample size increases?
  2. How do we interpret the z-score in this problem?
  3. What would the probability be for P(P^0.0125)P(\hat{P} \leq 0.0125)?
  4. Why is the standard error important in sampling distributions?
  5. How would the calculation change if pp were 2% instead of 1%?

Tip: When dealing with proportions, always ensure the sample size nn is large enough for the normal approximation to hold (np10np \geq 10 and n(1p)10n(1-p) \geq 10).

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Statistics
Probability
Sampling Distribution

Formulas

Mean of \(\hat{P}\): \(E[\hat{P}] = p\)
Standard deviation of \(\hat{P}\): \(\sigma_{\hat{P}} = \sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n}}\)
Z-score formula: \(z = \frac{\hat{P} - p}{\sigma_{\hat{P}}}\)

Theorems

Central Limit Theorem
Normal Distribution Properties

Suitable Grade Level

College Level