Math Problem Statement

The following data is representative of that reported in an article on nitrogen emissions, with x = burner area liberation rate (MBtu/hr-ft2) and y = NOx emission rate (ppm): x 100 125 125 150 150 200 200 250 250 300 300 350 400 400 y 140 150 180 210 180 320 270 410 420 450 400 610 620 670 A button hyperlink to the SALT program that reads: Use SALT. (a) Assuming that the simple linear regression model is valid, obtain the least squares estimate of the true regression line. (Round all numerical values to four decimal places.) y =

(b) What is the estimate of expected NOx emission rate when burner area liberation rate equals 240? (Round your answer to two decimal places.) ppm

(c) Estimate the amount by which you expect NOx emission rate to change when burner area liberation rate is decreased by 50. (Round your answer to two decimal places.) ppm

(d) Would you use the estimated regression line to predict emission rate for a liberation rate of 500? Why or why not? Yes, the data is perfectly linear, thus lending to accurate predictions. Yes, this value is between two existing values.
No, this value is too far away from the known values for useful extrapolation. No, the data near this point deviates from the overall regression model.

Solution

To address this problem, we will perform the following steps for each part:


(a) Least Squares Estimate of the Regression Line

The regression line is of the form y=b0+b1xy = b_0 + b_1 x, where:

  • b1=(xixˉ)(yiyˉ)(xixˉ)2b_1 = \frac{\sum (x_i - \bar{x})(y_i - \bar{y})}{\sum (x_i - \bar{x})^2}
  • b0=yˉb1xˉb_0 = \bar{y} - b_1 \bar{x}

Here, the given data is:

  • x=[100,125,125,150,150,200,200,250,250,300,300,350,400,400]x = [100, 125, 125, 150, 150, 200, 200, 250, 250, 300, 300, 350, 400, 400]
  • y=[140,150,180,210,180,320,270,410,420,450,400,610,620,670]y = [140, 150, 180, 210, 180, 320, 270, 410, 420, 450, 400, 610, 620, 670]

We will calculate the mean and sums required for these formulas.


(b) Estimate of NOx Emission Rate for x=240x = 240

We use the regression equation y=b0+b1xy = b_0 + b_1 x to estimate yy for x=240x = 240.


(c) Change in NOx Emission Rate for Decreasing xx by 50

The change in yy is Δy=b1Δx\Delta y = b_1 \Delta x, where Δx=50\Delta x = -50.


(d) Usefulness of Regression Line for x=500x = 500

We analyze whether x=500x = 500 falls within a reasonable range of the data to make predictions.


Let me compute the necessary values for the regression equation. numpy as np

Data points

x = np.array([100, 125, 125, 150, 150, 200, 200, 250, 250, 300, 300, 350, 400, 400]) y = np.array([140, 150, 180, 210, 180, 320, 270, 410, 420, 450, 400, 610, 620, 670])

Mean of x and y

x_mean = np.mean(x) y_mean = np.mean(y)

Slope (b1) and Intercept (b0) calculations

b1 = np.sum((x - x_mean) * (y - y_mean)) / np.sum((x - x_mean) ** 2) b0 = y_mean - b1 * x_mean

Estimate for y when x = 240

x_240 = 240 y_240 = b0 + b1 * x_240

Change in y for a change in x by -50

delta_x = -50 delta_y = b1 * delta_x

Regression equation results

b0, b1, y_240, delta_y### Results:

(a) Least Squares Estimate of the Regression Line

The regression line is: y=53.7254+1.7522xy = -53.7254 + 1.7522x

(b) Estimated NOx Emission Rate for x=240x = 240

For x=240x = 240, the estimated yy is: y=366.80ppmy = 366.80 \, \text{ppm}

(c) Expected Change in NOx Emission Rate for Decreasing xx by 50

The expected change in yy when xx decreases by 50 is: Δy=87.61ppm\Delta y = -87.61 \, \text{ppm}

(d) Usefulness of Regression Line for x=500x = 500

Using the regression line to predict for x=500x = 500 is not recommended because x=500x = 500 is too far outside the observed range (100–400). This would make the prediction unreliable due to potential deviations from the overall trend.


Would you like further clarifications or additional details? Here are some follow-up questions for better understanding:

  1. How is the least squares method applied to minimize errors in predictions?
  2. What are the limitations of linear regression when extrapolating data?
  3. Can the computed regression model be improved by using a quadratic or higher-order model?
  4. How does the coefficient b1b_1 represent the rate of change in the context of this problem?
  5. What are alternative methods to assess whether a model fits the data well?

Tip: Always check the residual plot to confirm that linear regression is appropriate for the data.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Linear Regression
Least Squares Method
Prediction of Emission Rates

Formulas

y = b0 + b1 * x
b1 = Σ((xi - x_mean) * (yi - y_mean)) / Σ((xi - x_mean)^2)
b0 = y_mean - b1 * x_mean
Δy = b1 * Δx

Theorems

Least Squares Regression

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 11-12