Math Problem Statement
Assume you flip a coin 80 times, and calculate that it has a sample mean of 0.56, a 90% confidence interval of [0.61, 0.52], and a 99% confidence interval of [0.63, 0.49]. What can you conclude?
Pick ONE option
the coin is fair with certainty p < 0.01
the coin is not fair with certainty p < 0.01
the coin is not fair with certainty p < 0.1 but not p < 0.01
the coin is fair with certainty p < 0.1 but not p < 0.01
Solution
Given the problem, let's break it down:
- Sample mean: 0.56, indicating that heads appeared 56% of the time.
- 90% confidence interval: [0.61, 0.52], implying that there's a 90% chance the true proportion lies between 0.52 and 0.61.
- 99% confidence interval: [0.63, 0.49], implying that there's a 99% chance the true proportion lies between 0.49 and 0.63.
Null Hypothesis: The coin is fair, meaning the true proportion of heads is 0.5.
- In both the 90% and 99% confidence intervals, the value 0.5 lies within the interval.
Conclusions:
- Since 0.5 (the expected proportion for a fair coin) is within both confidence intervals, we do not have enough evidence to reject the hypothesis that the coin is fair.
- However, at a 90% confidence level, the interval is close to excluding 0.5, meaning there's some evidence the coin might not be fair, but it's not strong enough for a higher confidence level like 99%.
Thus, the conclusion is: "The coin is fair with certainty p < 0.1 but not p < 0.01."
This is because the 90% confidence interval includes 0.5, but does not exclude it, suggesting that we can't reject the null hypothesis at the 99% level.
Do you want further details or have any questions?
Related Questions:
- How does sample size affect the width of confidence intervals?
- What does it mean when the confidence interval includes 0.5 for a coin flip?
- What are Type I and Type II errors in hypothesis testing?
- How does confidence level impact hypothesis testing?
- Can a 95% confidence interval provide a different conclusion from a 90% or 99% interval?
Tip: Confidence intervals give a range of values within which the true population parameter is expected to fall, helping assess the uncertainty around a sample estimate.
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Math Problem Analysis
Mathematical Concepts
Statistics
Confidence Intervals
Hypothesis Testing
Formulas
Confidence Interval Formula: CI = p̂ ± Z*(sqrt[(p̂(1-p̂))/n])
Sample Proportion (p̂) = x/n
Theorems
Central Limit Theorem
Normal Approximation of Binomial Distribution
Suitable Grade Level
Undergraduate Level
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