Math Problem Statement

Trials in an experiment with a polygraph include 97 results that include 24 cases of wrong results and 73 cases of correct results. Use a 0.05 significance level to test the claim that such polygraph results are correct less than 80​% of the time. Identify the null​ hypothesis, alternative​ hypothesis, test​ statistic, P-value, conclusion about the null​ hypothesis, and final conclusion that addresses the original claim. Use the​ P-value method. Use the normal distribution as an approximation of the binomial distribution.

Solution

To test the claim that polygraph results are correct less than 80% of the time, we'll perform a hypothesis test for the proportion of correct results. Here’s how you can do it step-by-step:

  1. Identify the hypotheses:

    • Null Hypothesis (H0H_0): p=0.80p = 0.80

      • This states that the proportion of correct results is 80%.
    • Alternative Hypothesis (H1H_1): p<0.80p < 0.80

      • This states that the proportion of correct results is less than 80%.
  2. Determine the sample proportion (p^\hat{p}):

    • Total trials: 97
    • Correct results: 73

    p^=73970.7526\hat{p} = \frac{73}{97} \approx 0.7526

  3. Find the test statistic:

    • Use the formula for the z-test for proportions:

    z=p^p0p0(1p0)nz = \frac{\hat{p} - p_0}{\sqrt{\frac{p_0 (1 - p_0)}{n}}}

    Here, p0=0.80p_0 = 0.80 and n=97n = 97.

    z=0.75260.800.80×(10.80)97z = \frac{0.7526 - 0.80}{\sqrt{\frac{0.80 \times (1 - 0.80)}{97}}}

    z=0.04740.80×0.2097z = \frac{-0.0474}{\sqrt{\frac{0.80 \times 0.20}{97}}}

    z=0.04740.1697z = \frac{-0.0474}{\sqrt{\frac{0.16}{97}}}

    z=0.04740.001649z = \frac{-0.0474}{\sqrt{0.001649}}

    z=0.04740.04061.167z = \frac{-0.0474}{0.0406} \approx -1.167

  4. Find the P-value:

    • Look up the z-value in a standard normal distribution table (or use a calculator) to find the P-value. The P-value for z=1.167z = -1.167 (looking for the left tail because H1:p<0.80H_1: p < 0.80) is approximately 0.121.
  5. Conclusion about the null hypothesis:

    • Compare the P-value with the significance level (α=0.05\alpha = 0.05).

    • Since 0.121>0.050.121 > 0.05, we fail to reject the null hypothesis.

  6. Final conclusion:

    • There is not enough statistical evidence to support the claim that the polygraph results are correct less than 80% of the time at the 0.05 significance level.

In summary, based on this test, we cannot conclude that the polygraph results are less than 80% accurate.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Hypothesis Testing
Proportions
Normal Approximation of Binomial Distribution

Formulas

Sample Proportion: p̂ = x / n
Test Statistic: z = (p̂ - p0) / sqrt(p0 * (1 - p0) / n)

Theorems

Central Limit Theorem
Properties of the Normal Distribution

Suitable Grade Level

Undergraduate Level (Statistics or Introductory Probability)