Math Problem Statement
Trials in an experiment with a polygraph include 97 results that include 24 cases of wrong results and 73 cases of correct results. Use a 0.05 significance level to test the claim that such polygraph results are correct less than 80% of the time. Identify the null hypothesis, alternative hypothesis, test statistic, P-value, conclusion about the null hypothesis, and final conclusion that addresses the original claim. Use the P-value method. Use the normal distribution as an approximation of the binomial distribution.
Solution
To test the claim that polygraph results are correct less than 80% of the time, we'll perform a hypothesis test for the proportion of correct results. Here’s how you can do it step-by-step:
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Identify the hypotheses:
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Null Hypothesis ():
- This states that the proportion of correct results is 80%.
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Alternative Hypothesis ():
- This states that the proportion of correct results is less than 80%.
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Determine the sample proportion ():
- Total trials: 97
- Correct results: 73
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Find the test statistic:
- Use the formula for the z-test for proportions:
Here, and .
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Find the P-value:
- Look up the z-value in a standard normal distribution table (or use a calculator) to find the P-value. The P-value for (looking for the left tail because ) is approximately 0.121.
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Conclusion about the null hypothesis:
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Compare the P-value with the significance level ().
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Since , we fail to reject the null hypothesis.
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Final conclusion:
- There is not enough statistical evidence to support the claim that the polygraph results are correct less than 80% of the time at the 0.05 significance level.
In summary, based on this test, we cannot conclude that the polygraph results are less than 80% accurate.
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Math Problem Analysis
Mathematical Concepts
Hypothesis Testing
Proportions
Normal Approximation of Binomial Distribution
Formulas
Sample Proportion: p̂ = x / n
Test Statistic: z = (p̂ - p0) / sqrt(p0 * (1 - p0) / n)
Theorems
Central Limit Theorem
Properties of the Normal Distribution
Suitable Grade Level
Undergraduate Level (Statistics or Introductory Probability)
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