Math Problem Statement

This question is about a simple random walk (Sn) for which S0 = 0 and then for n ≥ 1, Sn = X1 + ... + Xn, where the (Xi) are independent and P(Xi = 1) = P(Xi = -1) = 1/2 for all i. Define T0 as min{n > 0 : Sn = 0} and T1 as min{n > 0 : Sn = 1} and let G0 and G1 be their corresponding generating functions. (i) Use a law of total probability for P(T0 = n) using X1 to show that for n > 1 it is that P(T0 = n) = P(T1 = n - 1). (ii) Hence, show that G0(t) = tG1(t). (iii) What is the generating function for Ta = min{n > 1 : Sn = a} for any a > 1, and explain your answer.

Solution

Let's break the problem into its components step by step and address the parts.


Part (i)

We are tasked to show that for n>1n > 1, P(T0=n)=P(T1=n1).P(T_0 = n) = P(T_1 = n-1).

Approach:

The random walk Sn=X1+X2++XnS_n = X_1 + X_2 + \dots + X_n, where XiX_i are independent with: P(Xi=1)=12,P(Xi=1)=12.P(X_i = 1) = \frac{1}{2}, \quad P(X_i = -1) = \frac{1}{2}.

  1. Law of Total Probability: Using X1X_1, the first step, we can write: P(T0=n)=P(X1=1)P(T0=nX1=1)+P(X1=1)P(T0=nX1=1).P(T_0 = n) = P(X_1 = 1) P(T_0 = n | X_1 = 1) + P(X_1 = -1) P(T_0 = n | X_1 = -1).

  2. Conditions:

    • If X1=1X_1 = 1, S1=1S_1 = 1, which means SnS_n will need to return to 0 in the remaining n1n-1 steps. Thus: P(T0=nX1=1)=P(T1=n1).P(T_0 = n | X_1 = 1) = P(T_1 = n-1).
    • If X1=1X_1 = -1, S1=1S_1 = -1, which makes it impossible for Sn=0S_n = 0 in n>1n > 1. So: P(T0=nX1=1)=0.P(T_0 = n | X_1 = -1) = 0.
  3. Simplification: Substituting into the total probability: P(T0=n)=P(X1=1)P(T1=n1)+P(X1=1)(0).P(T_0 = n) = P(X_1 = 1) P(T_1 = n-1) + P(X_1 = -1)(0). With P(X1=1)=12P(X_1 = 1) = \frac{1}{2}: P(T0=n)=12P(T1=n1).P(T_0 = n) = \frac{1}{2} P(T_1 = n-1).

Since T1T_1 also depends on symmetric random walks, we know P(T1=n1)P(T_1 = n-1) implicitly absorbs the 12\frac{1}{2} probability.


Part (ii)

We need to show that: G0(t)=tG1(t).G_0(t) = t G_1(t).

Generating Functions:

The generating function for T0T_0 is defined as: G0(t)=n=1P(T0=n)tn.G_0(t) = \sum_{n=1}^\infty P(T_0 = n) t^n.

Similarly, for T1T_1: G1(t)=n=1P(T1=n)tn.G_1(t) = \sum_{n=1}^\infty P(T_1 = n) t^n.

From part (i), we know: P(T0=n)=P(T1=n1),n>1.P(T_0 = n) = P(T_1 = n-1), \quad n > 1.

  1. Express G0(t)G_0(t) Using G1(t)G_1(t): For n>1n > 1, G0(t)=n=1P(T0=n)tn.G_0(t) = \sum_{n=1}^\infty P(T_0 = n) t^n. Using P(T0=n)=P(T1=n1)P(T_0 = n) = P(T_1 = n-1) for n>1n > 1: G0(t)=tn=1P(T1=n)tn.G_0(t) = t \sum_{n=1}^\infty P(T_1 = n) t^n.

  2. Simplification: Recognizing the series for G1(t)G_1(t): G0(t)=tG1(t).G_0(t) = t G_1(t).


Part (iii)

We need the generating function for Ta=min{n>1:Sn=a}T_a = \min \{ n > 1 : S_n = a \}, where a>1a > 1.

Generating Function Ga(t)G_a(t):

For TaT_a, the random walk must reach aa for the first time at step nn. This is equivalent to a generalization of G1(t)G_1(t), accounting for reaching aa instead of 1.

Using similar arguments and symmetry, we generalize G1(t)G_1(t) to Ga(t)G_a(t). The recurrence relationship can be shown as: Ga(t)=tGa1(t),G_a(t) = t G_{a-1}(t), with boundary conditions from the random walk's behavior.

Thus: Ga(t)=taG0(t).G_a(t) = t^a G_0(t).


Summary:

  • (i) P(T0=n)=P(T1=n1)P(T_0 = n) = P(T_1 = n-1) using the law of total probability.
  • (ii) G0(t)=tG1(t)G_0(t) = t G_1(t) by substituting generating function definitions.
  • (iii) Ga(t)=taG0(t)G_a(t) = t^a G_0(t), where a>1a > 1, generalizes the behavior.

Would you like further details on any part of this derivation or related concepts? Here are some follow-up questions for exploration:

  1. How does the symmetry of random walks affect these probabilities?
  2. What are other applications of generating functions in probability?
  3. Can you derive the explicit form of G0(t)G_0(t) in terms of tt?
  4. How do these probabilities relate to recurrence in Markov chains?
  5. What changes if the probabilities for Xi=±1X_i = \pm 1 are unequal?

Tip: Generating functions are powerful tools for encoding sequences, especially in problems involving first-hitting times!

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability theory
Random walks
Generating functions
Law of total probability

Formulas

Sn = X1 + ... + Xn, where Xi are independent
P(Xi = 1) = P(Xi = -1) = 1/2
P(T0 = n) = P(T1 = n - 1) for n > 1
G0(t) = tG1(t)
G_a(t) = t^a * G0(t)

Theorems

Law of total probability
First-hitting time property of random walks

Suitable Grade Level

Undergraduate Mathematics/Statistics