Math Problem Statement

The following scatterplot, with an exponential regression, models a city's population since 1900.

This scatterplot, with an exponential regression, models a city's population since 1900. The population in 1950 was adjusted because a drought caused an exodus of farmers, most of whom moved back a few years later. [The graph plots Number of Years since 1900 on the horizontal axis and Population in Thousands on the vertical axis. A curve rises with increasing steepness from the second quadrant, then passes through the points (0, 2.5), (65, 26) in the first quadrant. A series of data points closely follows the curve and the equation near the curve reads: f of x equals 2.38 times e to the power of left parenthesis 0.04 x right parenthesis and r squared equals 0.85.]© 2018 WGU, Powered by GeoGebra

Question 2 of 12

Question 2This is not a form; we suggest that you use the browse mode and read all parts of the question carefully. Which statement is true about this regression?

Although f(100)≈124 , the result should not be trusted.

By f(100)≈124 , it can be estimated that the city had approximately 124,000 residents in 2000. This is an interpolation.

There are fewer than 30 data points, so no trustworthy conclusion can be made.

By f(100)≈124 , it can be estimated that the city had approximately 124,000 residents in 2000. This is an extrapolation.

Solution

The key aspect of this question is recognizing the difference between interpolation and extrapolation when making predictions based on a regression model.

Explanation:

  1. The x-axis represents the years since 1900, so:

    • x=0x = 0 corresponds to 1900.
    • x=100x = 100 corresponds to 2000.
  2. The equation given is f(x)=2.38e0.04xf(x) = 2.38 \cdot e^{0.04x}, which models the population in thousands.

    • When x=100x = 100, the function gives f(100)124f(100) \approx 124, meaning the population in 2000 is estimated to be approximately 124,000 people.
  3. Interpolation vs. Extrapolation:

    • Interpolation involves predicting values within the range of observed data.
    • Extrapolation involves predicting values outside the observed data range.

    Since the plot involves data primarily covering earlier years (up to 1950 as stated), making a prediction for 2000 (i.e., x=100x = 100) is an extrapolation, as it is beyond the main range of available data points.

Correct Answer:

  • "By f(100)124f(100) \approx 124, it can be estimated that the city had approximately 124,000 residents in 2000. This is an extrapolation."

Would you like further clarification or additional details?

Here are five related questions:

  1. What is the difference between linear and exponential regression?
  2. Why is extrapolation generally less reliable than interpolation?
  3. How is the value of r2=0.85r^2 = 0.85 interpreted in this context?
  4. What impact do outliers like the drought (1950) have on regression models?
  5. How can regression models be improved to make more accurate predictions?

Tip: In general, the reliability of a prediction decreases the farther you extrapolate beyond the observed data range.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Exponential Regression
Interpolation
Extrapolation
Curve Fitting

Formulas

f(x) = 2.38 * e^(0.04x)
Exponential Growth Formula

Theorems

Interpolation and Extrapolation Theorems
Regression Model Accuracy

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 9-12