Math Problem Statement

An unbiased die is thrown 13 times. After each throw a '+' is recorded for 2 or 5 and '-' is recorded for 1,3,4 or 6, the signs forming an ordered sequence. To each, except the first and last sign, a random variable X i ; i

1 , 2 , . . . , 11 X i ​ ;i=1,2,...,11 is associated which takes the value 1 1 if both of its neighbouring sign differs from the one between them and 0 0 otherwise. If the random variable Y Y is defined as Y

14 S + 29 Y=14S+29 where, S

∑ i

1 11 X i S=∑ i=1 11 ​ X i ​ . Find the expected value of Y Y.

Solution

Let's solve the problem step by step.

Step 1: Understanding the Random Variable XiX_i

Given that an unbiased die is thrown 13 times, an ordered sequence of '+' (for outcomes 2 or 5) and '-' (for outcomes 1, 3, 4, or 6) is formed. For each XiX_i (where i=1,2,,11i = 1, 2, \ldots, 11), the value of XiX_i is determined as follows:

  • Xi=1X_i = 1 if both of its neighboring signs differ from the sign in between.
  • Xi=0X_i = 0 otherwise.

Step 2: Probability of Each Sign

Since the die is unbiased:

  • Probability of a '+' (for outcomes 2 or 5) is P(+)=26=13P(+) = \frac{2}{6} = \frac{1}{3}.
  • Probability of a '-' (for outcomes 1, 3, 4, or 6) is P()=46=23P(-) = \frac{4}{6} = \frac{2}{3}.

Step 3: Calculation of P(Xi=1)P(X_i = 1)

Xi=1X_i = 1 occurs if the sign sequence follows either '+ - +' or '- + -'. The probability of each scenario is:

  • P(++)=13×23×13=227P(+ - +) = \frac{1}{3} \times \frac{2}{3} \times \frac{1}{3} = \frac{2}{27}.
  • P(+)=23×13×23=427P(- + -) = \frac{2}{3} \times \frac{1}{3} \times \frac{2}{3} = \frac{4}{27}.

Thus, the total probability that Xi=1X_i = 1 is: P(Xi=1)=P(++)+P(+)=227+427=627=29.P(X_i = 1) = P(+ - +) + P(- + -) = \frac{2}{27} + \frac{4}{27} = \frac{6}{27} = \frac{2}{9}.

Step 4: Expected Value of SS

S=i=111XiS = \sum_{i=1}^{11} X_i, where each XiX_i is an independent random variable. The expected value of SS is: [ \mathbb{E}[S] = \sum_{i=1}^{11} \mathbb{E}[X_i] = 11 \times \mathbb{E}[X_i] = 11 \times \frac{2}{9} = \frac{22}{9}. ]

Step 5: Expected Value of YY

Y=14S+29Y = 14S + 29. The expected value of YY is: [ \mathbb{E}[Y] = 14 \times \mathbb{E}[S] + 29 = 14 \times \frac{22}{9} + 29 = \frac{308}{9} + 29 = \frac{308}{9} + \frac{261}{9} = \frac{569}{9}. ]

Thus, the expected value of YY is 5699\boxed{\frac{569}{9}}.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Expected Value
Random Variables

Formulas

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Theorems

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Suitable Grade Level

Advanced Mathematics