Math Problem Statement
Suppose you play a coin toss game in which you win $1 if a head appears and lose $1 if a tail appears. In the first 100 coin tosses, heads comes up 36 times and tails comes up 64 times. a. What percentage of times has heads come up in the first 100 tosses? Answer 1 Question 5%
What is your net gain or loss at this point? Select the correct choice and fill in the answer box to complete your choice. You have Answer 2 Question 5 $Answer 3 Question 5. (Type an integer)
b. Suppose you toss the coin 200 more times (a total of 300 tosses), and at that point heads has come up 37% of the time. Is this change in the percentage of heads consistent with the law of large numbers? Explain. Multiple choice 1 Question 5 A. The change is not consistent with the law of large numbers because, as the number of trials increases, the proportion should grow closer to 50%. B. The change is consistent with the law of large numbers because, as the number of trials increases, the proportion should grow closer to 50%. C. The change is not consistent with the law of large numbers, because the trials are not independent. D. The change is consistent with the law of large numbers. Because the percentage is low the first 100 trials, it has to be higher the next 200 trials to even out.
What is your net gain or loss at this point? Select the correct choice and fill in the answer box to complete your choice. You have Answer 4 Question 5 $Answer 5 Question 5. (Type an integer)
c. How many heads would you need in the next 100 tosses in order to break even after 400 tosses? Is this likely to occur? Select the correct choices and fill in the answer box to complete your choice. You would need to toss Answer 6 Question 5 heads. This is Answer 7 Question 5 because it is Answer 8 Question 5 from the expected number of heads.
d. Suppose that, still behind after 400 tosses, you decide to keep playing because you are due for a winning streak. Explain how this belief would illustrate the gambler's fallacy. Multiple choice 2 Question 5 A. This illustrates the gambler's fallacy because eventually there will be a winning streak. B. This illustrates the gambler's fallacy because the number of heads cannot be under 50% all the time. C. This illustrates the gambler's fallacy because, due to the law of large numbers, the probability of getting heads must now be more than 0.5. D. This illustrates the gambler's fallacy because the probability of getting heads is always 0.5
Solution
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Math Problem Analysis
Mathematical Concepts
Probability
Statistics
Law of Large Numbers
Formulas
Percentage of heads = (Number of heads / Total tosses) * 100
Net result = (Number of heads * 1) + (Number of tails * -1)
Proportion of heads should approach 50% as number of trials increases
Theorems
Law of Large Numbers
Suitable Grade Level
Grades 9-12
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