Math Problem Statement
Suppose you play a coin toss game in which you win $1 if a head appears and lose $1 if a tail appears. In the first 100 coin tosses, heads comes up 36 times and tails comes up 64 times. a. What percentage of times has heads come up in the first 100 tosses? Answer 1 Question 5%
What is your net gain or loss at this point? Select the correct choice and fill in the answer box to complete your choice. You have Answer 2 Question 5 $Answer 3 Question 5. (Type an integer)
b. Suppose you toss the coin 200 more times (a total of 300 tosses), and at that point heads has come up 37% of the time. Is this change in the percentage of heads consistent with the law of large numbers? Explain. Multiple choice 1 Question 5 A. The change is not consistent with the law of large numbers because, as the number of trials increases, the proportion should grow closer to 50%. B. The change is consistent with the law of large numbers because, as the number of trials increases, the proportion should grow closer to 50%. C. The change is not consistent with the law of large numbers, because the trials are not independent. D. The change is consistent with the law of large numbers. Because the percentage is low the first 100 trials, it has to be higher the next 200 trials to even out.
What is your net gain or loss at this point? Select the correct choice and fill in the answer box to complete your choice. You have Answer 4 Question 5 $Answer 5 Question 5. (Type an integer)
c. How many heads would you need in the next 100 tosses in order to break even after 400 tosses? Is this likely to occur? Select the correct choices and fill in the answer box to complete your choice. You would need to toss Answer 6 Question 5 heads. This is Answer 7 Question 5 because it is Answer 8 Question 5 from the expected number of heads.
d. Suppose that, still behind after 400 tosses, you decide to keep playing because you are due for a winning streak. Explain how this belief would illustrate the gambler's fallacy. Multiple choice 2 Question 5 A. This illustrates the gambler's fallacy because eventually there will be a winning streak. B. This illustrates the gambler's fallacy because the number of heads cannot be under 50% all the time. C. This illustrates the gambler's fallacy because, due to the law of large numbers, the probability of getting heads must now be more than 0.5. D. This illustrates the gambler's fallacy because the probability of getting heads is always 0.5
Solution
Let’s work through each part of this question.
Part (a)
-
Percentage of times heads came up in the first 100 tosses:
Answer 1 Question 5: 36%
-
Net gain or loss after 100 tosses:
Since you win $1 for each head and lose $1 for each tail:
This means you have a net loss of $28.
Answer 2 Question 5: "a loss"
Answer 3 Question 5: 28
Part (b)
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Checking consistency with the law of large numbers after 300 tosses:
After 300 tosses, heads has come up 37% of the time, meaning:
The law of large numbers states that, as the number of trials increases, the proportion of heads should get closer to 50%. Since 37% is not close to 50%, this may not seem consistent with the law. However, statistically, fluctuations are still possible, even with a larger number of trials.
Correct answer: B
Explanation: The change is consistent with the law of large numbers because, as the number of trials increases, the proportion should approach 50%, though it may take many trials to converge.
-
Net gain or loss after 300 tosses:
With 111 heads and 189 tails:
So, you have a net loss of $78.
Answer 4 Question 5: "a loss"
Answer 5 Question 5: 78
Part (c)
-
Number of heads needed to break even after 400 tosses:
To break even after 400 tosses, you need to end with equal numbers of heads and tails. Since 400 tosses divided equally means 200 heads and 200 tails:
- Currently, you have 111 heads from the first 300 tosses.
- So, you need heads in the next 100 tosses to break even.
Answer 6 Question 5: 89
This is unlikely because getting 89 heads out of 100 tosses is an extreme outcome (89% heads), which is far from the expected 50%.
Answer 7 Question 5: unlikely
Answer 8 Question 5: far
Part (d)
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Explanation of the gambler's fallacy:
Correct answer: D
Explanation: This belief illustrates the gambler's fallacy because the probability of getting heads remains constant at 0.5 with each toss, regardless of past outcomes. Past losses do not increase the probability of winning in future tosses.
Summary of Answers:
- Answer 1 Question 5: 36%
- Answer 2 Question 5: "a loss"
- Answer 3 Question 5: 28
- Answer 4 Question 5: "a loss"
- Answer 5 Question 5: 78
- Answer 6 Question 5: 89
- Answer 7 Question 5: unlikely
- Answer 8 Question 5: far
Would you like more detailed explanations on any part?
Here are five follow-up questions for further exploration:
- How does the law of large numbers apply in coin tosses over a very large number of trials?
- What is the probability of getting exactly 50 heads out of 100 coin tosses?
- How does the gambler’s fallacy affect decision-making in real-life scenarios?
- What are the chances of having a net gain after 300 tosses if the coin is fair?
- How could understanding probability and the law of large numbers improve gambling behavior?
Tip: Remember, each coin toss is independent, and past results do not influence future probabilities.
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Math Problem Analysis
Mathematical Concepts
Probability
Statistics
Law of Large Numbers
Formulas
Percentage of heads = (Number of heads / Total tosses) * 100
Net result = (Number of heads * 1) + (Number of tails * -1)
Proportion of heads should approach 50% as number of trials increases
Theorems
Law of Large Numbers
Suitable Grade Level
Grades 9-12
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