Math Problem Statement

find the probability of r successes and round to the nearest thousandth if p = 0.18, q = 0.82, n = 4, and r = 4

Solution

We are dealing with a binomial probability distribution because we are finding the probability of having exactly rr successes out of nn trials, where each trial has a success probability pp and a failure probability qq.

The formula for the binomial probability is:

P(r)=(nr)prqnrP(r) = \binom{n}{r} \cdot p^r \cdot q^{n-r}

Where:

  • (nr)\binom{n}{r} is the binomial coefficient, or "n choose r", which is calculated as n!r!(nr)!\frac{n!}{r!(n-r)!},
  • pp is the probability of success,
  • qq is the probability of failure (q=1pq = 1 - p),
  • nn is the number of trials,
  • rr is the number of successes.

Given values:

  • p=0.18p = 0.18,
  • q=0.82q = 0.82,
  • n=4n = 4,
  • r=4r = 4.

First, calculate (44)\binom{4}{4}, which simplifies to 1 because (nn)=1\binom{n}{n} = 1.

Now, calculate the probability:

P(4)=1(0.18)4(0.82)0P(4) = 1 \cdot (0.18)^4 \cdot (0.82)^0

Let's calculate this result.The probability of exactly 4 successes in 4 trials, with a success probability of 0.18, is approximately 0.001 (rounded to the nearest thousandth).

Do you want more details or have any questions?

Here are some related questions:

  1. How would the probability change if r=3r = 3?
  2. What is the probability of getting fewer than 4 successes?
  3. How does increasing pp to 0.25 affect the result for r=4r = 4?
  4. What is the total probability of getting 0, 1, 2, or 3 successes?
  5. How would you compute the expected number of successes?

Tip: The sum of probabilities over all possible values of

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Binomial Distribution

Formulas

P(r) = (n choose r) * p^r * q^(n-r)
n choose r = n! / (r!(n-r)!)

Theorems

Binomial Probability Theorem

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 10-12